Fourth Tour crown in clear sight for commander Froome

Stage 19
11.30am Friday, ITV4 & Eurosport 1

Chris Froome all but assured himself of a fourth Tour de France victory when finishing fourth on Thursday's stage finish on the Izoard with a commanding performance where his rivals never looked like breaking him.

The gap between Froome and Romain Bardet was narrowed by four seconds to 23secs as Bardet picked up the time bonus for finishing third on the stage.

However, with just three stages to go including an individual time-trial that will play to Froome's strengths rather than his closest pursuers Bardet and Rigoberto Uran (now at 29secs) it is hard to see, barring something extraordinary happening on Friday, how Froome can be overtaken. But as we have seen on this Tour nothing can be entirely taken for granted.

The stage went to Warren Barguil, recommended at 14-1 by Matthew Ireland. Barguil has been one of the stars of this tour and this victory was a deserved second stage win and he only needs to finish the tour to pick up the polka-dot jersey for which he was a 66-1 at the start.

The biggest loser on the day was Fabio Aru, who lost more than a minute on those ahead of him and now lies in fifth place. Mikel Landa, who has done a fantastic job supporting team leader Froome, move up to fourth in the Italian's place.

Friday's stage from Embrun to Salon-de-Provence should hold few fears for Team Sky, though it is unlikely anyone in the peloton is looking forward to a 223km trek after two days in the Alps.

The lumpy topography means it could be a day for the escapees and the two early category-three climbs will help those to form, but with just one further third-category in the final 180km (that comes 44km from the finish) the sprint-orientated teams without success to date may be willing to work together and a sprint finish may well ensue.

In recent years it has been quite rare for any Grand Tour to have such a stage in the final few days following the mountain stages (final-day criteriums excepted).

The last one in the Tour de France was in 2014, when Rasmunas Navardauskas chanced his legs a few kilometres out and held off the sprinters by seven seconds. The two previous occasions in 2012 and 2009 saw Mark Cavendish prevail.

Neither of that pair are still involved this year but the 2014 runner-up John Degenkolb is. The German is not the same sprinter as a couple of years back but he has finished second and third in bunched sprints on this Tour and with the fast men now having abandoned he could see this as a winnable stage. Edvald Boasson Hagen will also be hopeful of ending Team Dimension Data’s blank in this Tour.

There will be no shortage of riders willing to be part of the breakaway but there is little point in speculating on who in advance. A better punting tactic will to be bet once the breakaway group has formed. If the chase is simply being controlled by Team Sky, then it will surely succeed.

Recommendation
J Degenkolb
1pt 11-1 Paddy Power