Who will win the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup based on previous trends?

All eyes will be on the Cheltenham Festival's flagship race, the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30), in a week's time. We've taken a look at previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help predict this year's winner.

Ground

Should it remain good to soft it could be suitable, on the whole, for most of the leading contenders.

Galvin's festival victory in last year's National Hunt Chase came on good to soft, while A Plus Tard's procession in this season's Betfair Chase also came on that going. So, too, did Minella Indo's Gold Cup success last season and two-time champion Al Boum Photo's wins in the championship race.

While Protektorat has also won a Grade 1 on good to soft going, his best performance on Racing Post Ratings came when he achieved 172 with his dominant victory in the Many Clouds Chase on rain-softened ground at Aintree in December, while Tornado Flyer's King George VI Chase success came on soft going.

Chantry House: could have the ground in his favour in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

It could play to Chantry House's strengths too, given his two Grade 1s last spring came on good to soft and he won the Cotswold Chase last time on ground officially described as good.

One horse for whom it could be detrimental, however, is Royale Pagaille, whose four victories in Britain have come on soft or worse.

Age

In 21 runnings this century, nine winners have been aged eight, while six have been seven and five have been nine, with one six-year-old – Long Run – obliging in 2011. Not since Cool Dawn in 1998 has a ten-year-old won the Gold Cup.

Given the outstanding record of eight-year-olds in the race, leading fancies Galvin and A Plus Tard fall into that category – as does Chantry House – and have to be considered, while the seven-year-old Protektorat and nine-year-old Minella Indo also warrant stronger claims than others.

The trends are firmly against ten-year-old Al Boum Photo regaining his Gold Cup crown, as they are too against outsiders Melon, Santini, Lostintranslation and Chatham Street Lad.

Form

Winning form coming into the Gold Cup has proved crucial in the last decade, with eight of those ten winners arriving after a victory; only Lord Windermere in 2014 and Minella Indo last year were able to defy that trend.

Galvin was a narrow winner of the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but attempts to become the first horse since Synchronised in 2012 to win that and follow up in the Gold Cup, while Al Boum Photo, Protektorat, Tornado Flyer and Chantry House all posted wins last time out.

Al Boum Photo: took his usual route towards the Gold Cup at Tramore on New Year's DayCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Three Cheltenham Gold Cup winners had also run in the Irish equivalent. Two of them, Minella Indo and Lord Windermere, were well beaten in that race before bouncing back to their best at Prestbury Park.

That could bode well for Minella Indo again as he attempts to retain his crown, having been a well-held second in the Leopardstown feature this year.

Trip

The perfect Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has proved to be a dour stayer to get every inch of the 3m2½f trip, but who also has that extra class to compete at the top level.

Each of the last ten winners has won a Grade 1 over three miles or further with nine of those having done so over fences – Minella Indo defied that trend last year with his previous top-level successes coming over hurdles, including in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle.

Galvin, A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Al Boum Photo, Tornado Flyer and Chantry House all meet that criterion, but crucially it discounts leading British hope Protektorat, with his sole Grade 1 success coming over 2m4f.

There would also be doubts about Melon, Royale Pagaille and Mount Ida among the lively outsiders, given they are all yet to win at this level, while Santini finished a neck second behind Al Boum Photo in the 2020 race.

Racing Post Ratings

Six of the last ten winners had an RPR of 171 or higher coming into the race, but only three of the leading contenders reached a mark of that following their efforts last time out.

Galvin (175), Tornado Flyer (174) and Protektorat (172) have the right credentials for the race based on that, while A Plus Tard (168), Minella Indo (161), Al Boum Photo (168) and Chantry House (167) need to improve on their latest outings.

Favourites

It has not been a kind race for favourite backers this decade, with only Bobs Worth (2012), Don Cossack (2016) and Al Boum Photo (2020) the three market leaders to oblige.

Don Cossack: the shortest-priced winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the last decadeCredit: Edward Whitaker

That could work against current favourite A Plus Tard's leading chances, but eight of the last ten winners have also been single-figure prices, which brings himself, Galvin, Minella Indo, Protektorat and Al Boum Photo into the equation.

Verdict

While there may be little to separate A Plus Tard and Galvin at the head of the betting, the latter seems to fit the bill perfectly for a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.

He is at the prime age, already has course- and festival-winning experience on the likely ground conditions, is a natural stayer and proved he has the class for this sphere when a gritty winner of the Savills Chase last time.

Galvin (red cap) and A Plus Tard (centre) are on course to clash again in the Gold CupCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

A Plus Tard, Minella Indo and Al Boum Photo cannot be ruled out either, but they must improve from the showings they put in last time, while Protektorat seems to have the majority of the trends stacked against him, despite seemingly leading the British team.

One who could outrun his odds is the Nicky Henderson-trained Chantry House, who has strong form on the New course and bounced back to somewhere near his best in the Cotswold Chase last time, despite there being only two double-figure-priced winners of the race in the last decade.

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Read more on the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup:

2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup: the runners, the odds, the verdict

Expert tips: why this horse can win the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup

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