Can Harry Cobden break his Cartmel duck at the final meeting of the season?

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Can you feel that autumnal chill? It's the last day's racing of the year at Cartmel, the first of many harbingers of a change in the seasons, soon to be followed by kids back at school, falling leaves and flocking birds. 

Hopefully, you've gathered all the fruit you need from this summer because there's only hours left. Harry Cobden has certainly been busier than usual for the time of year and hopes he can cap it with a first-ever victory at the Lake District venue. 

It's a mark of his new willingness to go (almost) anywhere that he's in action today. Cobden has only ever had seven rides at Cartmel, the most recent of which was three years ago. It is currently the only British jumps track where he's had rides but no success. 

"I've probably been there two or three times," he tells the Front Runner. "Lovely course, great atmosphere, from what I know of it already. I could just do with a winner there now." 

I wonder aloud if victory today would bring up the full set of British tracks for him, but the 24-year-old sets me straight. "I've never been to Sedgefield or Hexham." 

He doesn't say that in a prideful way, you understand. It's simply that there has never been a pressing need for him to make the 600-mile round trip that either of those would require. 

Cartmel: stages its final meeting of the season todayCredit: GROSSICK RACING

Anyway, Cobden has two chances to get a first winner at Cartmel and, since he's currently averaging less than one ride there per season, it would be a good idea to make them count. He's on the hurdling debutant Balboa for Milton Harris in a juvenile contest, followed by My Gift To You, seeking a hat-trick in handicaps since joining the up-and-coming James Owen. 

"Milton obviously thinks his is okay. James Owen's horse would probably be my best chance. He's a horse I quite like and they think he's in good form at home." 

My Gift To You is up 10lb since scoring over fences at Worcester at the start of the month but anyone who saw it will probably agree with me that he will still have something in hand. Cobden showed Francome-esque levels of coolness in the lateness of his challenge, obscuring the extent of his mount's superiority. 

This return to hurdles looks a good idea for the time being, given that My Gift To You was a bit sticky over the larger obstacles. But it looks a hot race for the grade, with four other last-time winners. 

Also in the line-up is our old friend Secret Secret, a dramatic winner on the Flat at Navan in October when with Emmet Mullins but frustrating in three starts over hurdles for Neil Mulholland. He's now joined Cartmel's top trainer James Moffatt, whose followers had an especially good time of it on Saturday. 

Moffatt can once more use Charlotte Jones, who was serving an interference suspension that day. She has 27 Cartmel wins to her name, as does Sean Bowen, while Sean Quinlan is on 19. If experience of the track counts for much, Cobden will be at a disadvantage. 

Charlotte Jones: has ridden 27 winners at CartmelCredit: GROSSICK RACING

"From my minimal experience, everything happens quite fast round there," he says. "They always go a good gallop. I think it's quite a quick track, a sharp track. It seems to suit certain horses, including some that I wouldn't have thought would cope with it. 

"I think I've only ridden over fences there once before, I could be wrong. That was the day there was torrential rain about five or six years ago and it got abandoned after about the third or fourth race. We all weighed in 6lbs heavy, it was quite unbelievable, really." 

Cobden's unusually busy summer has kept him in contention for the race to be champion jump jockey, which was the main aim. He set himself a target of 40 winners by October and is already on 36. It's been a fine start but whether it'll be good enough is open to doubt, considering Bowen is already on twice that number. 

"It's been good," he says, "I've made a few good contacts. Couldn't complain at all, I've had plenty of good rides. I'll just keep plugging along." 

But, just as the weather is turning, so too is his attention - from all his new associates to the many fine prospects at the stable of Paul Nicholls, his main employer. "I've been spending a lot of time in Ditcheat lately, schooling and riding out, and there's some lovely young horses there to look forward to in the winter. That's really what I can't wait for now." 

Monday's picks, by Richard Birch

The day after Captain Haddock’s last run I wrote in my notebook, 'Will win at Epsom on August bank holiday Monday'. Just over seven weeks later, Captain Haddock lines up off a low weight in the Betfred Nifty Fifty Amateurs’ Derby Handicap (3.40).

I don’t know much about the two Irish challengers, Liberated Light and Belgoprince, but am confident Captain Haddock is much the best handicapped of the British contingent.

Captain Haddock romped to victory in this race two years ago off a mark of 78, beating Saturday’s Ebor runner Cemhaan by four lengths. That was his first visit to the track and he handled the tricky gradients with aplomb, the result never in doubt after he stormed to the front two furlongs out.

The Heather Main-trained gelding could finish only sixth behind Saratoga Gold last year but signalled he’d perform far better on this third attempt at the race when an eyecatching second to Bug Boy from well off the pace at Epsom last month.

Bug Boy, who got first run on Captain Haddock that night, went on to land the Brighton Challenge Cup, and my selection is able to run off 10lb lower than in 2021. His stable is flying, with Main having a winner at York’s Ebor meeting (Zoulu Chief), a winner of the Sunday Series at Sandown last weekend (Island Bandit) and a Racing League winner at Windsor (Zoulu Chief again).

Captain Haddock is the only course-and-distance scorer in the field, has clearly been primed for this day by a bang-in-form trainer and should find underfoot conditions ideal. 

'He will win at Epsom on August bank holiday Monday' - will our tipster's long-range prediction come true? 

Three things to look out for on Monday

1. There's a strong line-up for Ripon's Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy, a less well funded (but equally Listed) version of the Redcar race in October. The name that jumps off the page is Asadna, who made such a huge impression when rocketing to victory over this course and distance in May. He started 7-2 for the Coventry but, as you'll recall, ran disappointingly and was moved stables, his owner complaining about an injury the week before Ascot. Asadna ran a bit better, but still below market expectations, when third at Newbury in July and today we get the latest chapter in the saga. Tom Marquand rides for the first time. Their main rival looks like Task Force, a debutant winner last month from the red-hot Ralph Beckett stable. His dam is Special Duty, who was memorably awarded two Classics in the stewards' room. 

Asadna15:35 Ripon

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Jky: Tom Marquand Tnr: Alice Haynes

2. It's a big day for the Callan family at Epsom; not only does Neil have three rides on the card but his son, Jack, has a go at the Betfred Amateurs' Derby. This will be just the seventh ride in the career of the teenager and potentially a first success. He rides Sun King, who has come down the ratings a bit since joining George Boughey from Aidan O'Brien, and he would hardly be the first son of Galileo to score at this track. Callan Sr told the Front Runner this summer: "Jack's about the same height as me, around seven stone, just under, keeps very, very fit. I've got a gym at home and he uses that a lot. He's self-motivated, a clever kid and a nice character, nicer than I am." 

Sun King15:40 Epsom

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Jky: Mr Jack Callan (6lb)Tnr: George Boughey

3. It must be about time for Mt Leinster to bring his losing run to an end, having once been quite a promising chaser in the making. That, I think, is part of Willie Mullins's thinking in sending him to Ballinrobe tonight for the BoyleSports Chase, won by the same yard last year with Fan De Blues. Mt Leinster hasn't won since Fairyhouse in April last year but he's been kept to valuable handicaps in his forays over fences and this should be a lot less taxing. He's getting 10lb from Visionarian and therefore looks the most likely winner. Mullins is on 36 per cent for this jumps season in Ireland. 

Mt Leinster19:05 Ballinrobe

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Jky: Paul Townend Tnr: W P Mullins

Read these next:

What's on this week: big names at unlikely places, intriguing jumpers and a French Group 1 worth waiting for 

A left-field Leger possible, more Beckett brilliance and a bleak few days for Godolphin - three things we learned this week 

Racing Post Members' Club: subscribe for just £9.99 this summer 

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.