Scottish Grand National trends: how to find the winner of Ayr's showpiece

The clue might seem to be in the name, but the Scottish Grand National, despite being a high-class four-mile chase in April, has a different rule book to its Aintree equivalent. Keith Melrose offers the tips you need to find the winner . . .

Don't leave it late

Race tactics get little attention when trends are discussed, but they can be powerful. In the Scottish National, and plenty of other big-field jumps handicaps (particularly chases), prominent racers are generally favoured.

Of the 27 first-three finishers in the Scottish National so far this decade, 12 of them raced close to the pace (according to Racing Post in-running comments), six in mid-field and nine in rear. Take winners alone and it's four, three and two, respectively.

Relative to the Grand National, runners spend much more time on the turn over three laps of Ayr, increasing the tariff on a big move out wide. All else being equal, it is best to stick with a horse that's likely to race prominently.

Youth to the fore

There is a real contrast here with Aintree, where assured jumping is given such prominence that many punters would never give much thought to an inexperienced chaser.

The Scottish National, however, offers much more fertile ground for horses in the early stages of their chasing careers. Four of the nine winners this decade were in their first season over fences, while a further three were in their second.

Finding the balance between a horse having sufficient experience to compete, and enough latent ability to win, is one of the keys to betting on any handicap. The difference between the Aintree and Scottish Grand Nationals is where the tipping point lies, determined by the nature of the fences.

Ground not too big an issue

Chasers who stay well but are suited to good ground are often saved for Ayr and they are admittedly well catered for. Seven of the last nine runnings have been on ground described as good, the other two on good to soft.

Telling those horses from the rest might be a bit more difficult, though. Among the last nine winners, their best prevous runs (based on Racing Post Ratings) were split evenly between good ground, good to soft and soft/heavy.

A proper mudlark may find it all happening a bit quickly, but there seems little need to get bogged down with ground preferences.

All ground seems to come alike to last year's third, Vintage CloudsCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Watch out for specialists

In the time between Red Rum's second Grand National win in 1974 and Tiger Roll's last week, there had been four multiple winners of the Scottish Grand National, two of them (Merigo and Vicente) in the last decade.

Prime among the potential reasons would be that the Scottish National is not quite as competitive, and because Ayr puts the emphasis on early pace and not so much on jumping, which is a bit of a topsy-turvy demand for long-distance chasers.

Vintage Clouds, a first-fence faller at Aintree last Saturday, is a prominent racer who can make the odd mistake, and he is much better suited to Ayr. He showed it when he was third last year.

Conclusion

The main thing to remember about the Scottish Grand National is it is a more conventional race than the inimitable Grand National itself. Lightly raced horses who run up near the pace are the main group that thrive, and don't get too worried about the ground.

For a trends-based recommendation, nothing matches the profile perfectly. Two to pay particular attention to would be last year's third Vintage Clouds, and Cloth Cap in the same silks, who is literally as unexposed as can be and has shown enough pace to whizz round Catterick, a notably sharp track.

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