Tom Collins opts against the favourite as star fillies clash in Dahlia Stakes

2.25 Newmarket
Betfair Dahlia Fillies' Stakes (Group 2) | 1m2f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

The bookmakers believe this year's running of the Dahlia Stakes is between just three of the seven runners, with fourth in the betting, Sweet Promise, available as big as 14-1 and the top trio all 7-2 or shorter.

That looks a fair assessment given the level of form on offer, although they may have given favouritism to the wrong filly.

John Gosden's Terebellum has been strong at the head of the market all week and, although she remains extremely unexposed after just four starts and shapes like a future top-class prospect over this trip, her price reflects her potential and top connections rather than her efforts to date.

Three of her four career starts have come on soft ground, so the conditions at Newmarket will represent a completely different challenge, while her sole success outside of maiden company came in the Group 2 Prix de la Nonette – a race that hasn't produced a single subsequent winner.

Based on that, Terebellum should be behind formsetter Magic Lily in the betting. Charlie Appleby's mare has run well on both outings at the track (won her maiden by eight lengths before finishing third in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile in 2017) and was in fine form at Meydan this winter.

Terebellum (green silks): two wins from four starts last seasonCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

A brace of Group 2 victories was followed by a second in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta, which is clearly the best form on offer. She is the value in the race at around 5-2.

Sir Michael Stoute's Queen Power also has claims but has a tendency to race keenly and she might not be suited to a small field and steady pace on her return to the track.
Tom Collins

What the stats say

Charlie Appleby, who won this race in 2018, has an impressive 28 per cent strike-rate with runners aged four and over at Newmarket. He runs leading contender Magic Lily here.

Godolphin have won this race in two of the last four years – with Usherette (2016) and Wuheida (2018) – and they are represented by the two market leaders here.

What the trainers say

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Magic Lily
We were delighted to see Magic Lily repay our patience with two Group 2 wins out in Dubai and she ran another superb race to finish second to Barney Roy in the Jebel Hatta. She posted two good efforts on this course as a juvenile and a mile and a quarter looks to be an ideal distance for her. If she can translate her Meydan form to Europe, she should be a major contender at this level.

David Simcock, trainer of Ardiente
She trains well and is not devoid of speed. She is in foal to Advertise, so we don’t have the biggest window to try and grab some black type for her.

John Gosden, trainer of Terebellum
She's been pleasing us at home this spring and is ready for a run. She'll appreciate this rain that's falling, although it was too deep for her when she ran last at Longchamp at the backend.
Reporting by James Stevens

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