'This has been the plan with him since March' - Becher Chase quotes and insight

Saturday: 2.05 Aintree
Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) | 3m2f | 6yo+ | ITV4/RTV

The Becher Chase fights for runners in a busy spell for staying handicap chases, which includes the Coral Gold Cup, Rehearsal Chase, London National and a premier handicap at Cheltenham next Friday among others. In that context it fares extremely well, with an average field size of 19 over the last ten years.

That shows the continued pull of the National course, but go a little deeper and you can also see the type of horse that is aimed at the Becher. A third (33.5 per cent) of runners have been aged ten or older. By comparison, only 14.9 per cent of runners have been seven or younger.

It is probably to be expected that more veterans are asked to take on the National fences, which remain a unique challenge. What you might not have expected is for them to hold sway over the younger types, even if only narrowly.

Those aged seven or younger have produced one winner in the last decade, when the market would have expected 2.21 winners (taking, for instance, an even-money shot as 0.5 expected winners). Veterans do better, with three winners versus 3.89 expected.

Expanding this to placed runners is more robust and tells much the same story, just not as emphatically. Younger horses have had five placed, versus 6.98 expected, while for veterans the numbers are 11 and 12.95. Older horses have a better completion rate, too. Just over half (50.8 per cent) made it round, while for younger horses it was only 42.8 per cent.

You should therefore have no qualms about including last year's winner, Snow Leopardess, or De Rasher Counter in your Placepot, or using them to get the most out of enhanced each-way terms. Just be warned: trends are a way of projecting the recent past on to the present, and this particular present has an unexpected look to it.

For a start, the younger horses outnumber the veterans this year, by seven to four. Furthermore, two of them have taken a route that was not available even a couple of years ago.

The Grand Sefton, over 2m5f of the National course, used to be on this card but as of last year takes place four weeks earlier. The placed horses that day, Gesskille (aged six) and Percussion (seven), both turn up here with the former having been ante-post favourite.

There seems little reason the latter should be so much further down the betting. He is progressive, took to the course just as well as Gesskille and shaped like more of a stayer.

He is also 7lb better off at the weights and his trainer, Laura Morgan, is even more of an emerging force than Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, who train Gesskille.

These relative youngsters hold a strong hand and this year's Becher could be an instance where the trends, and to a lesser extent the markets, have shot off in a different direction from the reality.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Fagan first

Fagan, one-time favourite for the Scottish Grand National and runner up at the Cheltenham Festival in 2016, represents a first runner for the newly formed Stowe 100 Club.

The large syndicate is made up of pupils, parents and staff of Stowe School in Buckinghamshire, who have come together to own three horses over the next 12 months to celebrate the public school's centenary in 2023.

Trainer Alex Hales is a former pupil at a school whose alumni include Richard Branson and David Niven.

Hales said: "Being a grey, all eyes will probably be on Snow Leopardess in the race, however Fagan has been kept fresh for this race. He has good form and on his day is a decent performer – this is a thrilling first race for the owners and I hope he can do them proud."

What they say

Tom Bellamy, rider of De Rasher Counter
It's wide open, as you'd expect, but he's in great form at home and ran well to be second at Warwick last time. He may have top weight but he's a classy individual and I'd be hopeful of a good showing.

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Snow Leopardess
Slipping and being pulled up before the first at Warwick wasn't the most ideal preparation for trying to repeat her win in this last year, but she's come out of it fine.

Sandy Thomson, trainer of Hill Sixteen
It was always the plan to come back for this race as he was just touched off in it last year, and hopefully he can go the two inches better this time. He's gone up in the weights since then, but he's in great form and we are very hopeful of another good run.

Henry Daly, trainer of Fortescue
He had a spin over hurdles to set him up for a return to fences and I couldn't find a race on soft enough ground until this came along. He should give a good account, especially if it's soft.

Willie Mullins, trainer of Recite A Prayer and Captain Kangaroo
I think the trip will suit both horses, but the drying week is in the favour of Recite A Prayer who was placed in the Kerry National. That was a great run and I think the extra couple of furlongs will suit him and he’ll love these fences. It will be good practice for him if he comes back here for the National in the spring. Captain Kangaroo is still only a novice but after winning the Cork National we’re aiming a little higher and hoping to get him qualified for the Grand National back at Aintree. A run around these fences will be invaluable practice for him.

Sam Twiston-Davies, rider of Fantastikas
It's his first go over the big fences and the plan is to get him qualified for the Grand National. He blew up on his comeback at Cheltenham since when he has schooled well at home.

Cloth Cap: runs in the Becher ChaseCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Cloth Cap
We go there more in hope than confidence but hopefully he can step up on his comeback run, although he could do with the ground drying out a bit.

Ben Clarke, trainer of Dr Kananga
This has been the plan with him since March and he had a good run back over hurdles at Bangor the other day. He jumps like a bunny at home, so we're hopeful he can handle the National fences.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Ashtown Lad
He has a fair chance. He had a decent run back over hurdles there and he should enjoy the switch to fences and step up in trip. The forecast is in his favour as he doesn't want it soft.

Oliver Greenall, joint-trainer of Gesskille
He seemed to take to the fences well in the Grand Sefton last time when his saddle slipped at the Canal Turn. He's won over three miles before but he's never run over this sort of trip.

Richard Newland, trainer of Enqarde
He's come out of his hurdles run at Newbury in good form and he schooled well in Lambourn last week. We'll need some luck over these fences, but we're hoping for another exciting day at Aintree.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Didero Vallis
He's a bit of a law unto himself. He has run reasonably well there before, so we’re hoping he puts his best foot forward. Lucy [Turner] knows him well as she looks after him at home.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read more of Saturday's previews:

1.30 Aintree: 'We're confident in what we've seen at home' - Ahoy Senor on revival mission

1.45 Sandown: 'It's a Grade 1 so it's no giveaway' - Henderson on hot favourite Jonbon

2.20 Sandown: Love Envoi takes first step on path towards Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham

2.55 Sandown: 'If he's back to his best he's the one to beat' - Shishkin returns in Tingle Creek

3.30 Sandown: 'We think there's plenty more to come from him' - key London National quotes

Fairyhouse: Can Champion Bumper star Facile Vega maintain unbeaten streak on hurdling debut?

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