The Ultima: the Cheltenham Festival handicap with an unusual trend

2.50 Cheltenham
Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) | 3m1f | Old course | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

There is no need to insult anyone's intelligence by pretending otherwise: there are loads of handicap plots for Cheltenham every year, and they are a feature of the Ultima every bit as much as the Pertemps Final.

A plot can just mean a horse who has been saved for the race, which is the case with likely favourite Vinndication. He dotted up at Ascot in November and has not run since. He looked extremely good at times as a novice, too, and always shaped like 3m would bring out the best in him. Going left-handed and running off 159 are the obstacles he must overcome.

On the latter, the average winner has been 12lb ahead of their mark, going by RPRs. Vinndication will need to be Gold Cup-class if that is the case this year.

Beware The Bear wins last year's Ultima Handicap ChaseCredit: Edward Whitaker

It is a personal theory that Kildisart has been pointed at this race for just as long, but he has run three times since, largely under unsuitable conditions. There were clear positive signs at Kempton last time and cheekpieces go on now, which makes some sense as he can be a clumsy jumper.

Those are just two from a field of 23. Several pages could be dedicated to going through each of the runners in turn.

General observations about the race do not make punters' task much easier. Novices do quite well, but perhaps more than any other Cheltenham handicap this race rewards frequent flyers. Un Temps Pour Tout won back-to-back renewals, while last year's one-two had finished fourth and third the year before.

This race also adheres to the general principle over fences that prominent racing, far from 'setting it up for others', is actually the percentage call.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

'I feel he's very, very good and I hope he proves it': Vinndication the star as Bass prepares for big day

David Bass is savouring the opportunity to ride on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, not just because two of his three rides are favourites but because it will be his only day in action at the meeting.

Bass, 31, is set to partner Vinndication, a 13-2 chance in the Ultima, and Northern Trust market leader Imperial Aura both for boss Kim Bailey. He will also ride Global Citizen in the Racing Post Arkle.

He said: "I'm really looking forward the day, I've got three really good rides. I'm only at Cheltenham one day this week so I need to make the most of it. I'm excited for the day but it wouldn't be right if I wasn't nervous, I've been lucky to ride good horses before so I cope with it better than I used to."

Vinndication has always been held in huge regard by Bass. The seven-year-old was an impressive winner on his only start this season, at Ascot in November, and his jockey is optimistic there is more improvement to come.

"I've always loved him," said Bass. "I rode him for the first time in a novice hurdle at Leicester and I knew then that he was potentially very good. Some of his form, even going back to his novice hurdles, suggests he's probably better than a handicapper. He's felt really good this year, I know he's only had one run but he was very impressive.

"I'm not concerned about top weight. It's a Cheltenham handicap and will be ultra competitive but I feel he's very, very good and I hope he proves it. He's as good as ever and we're hopeful."

David Bass: has three big rides at Cheltenham on TuesdayCredit: Edward Whitaker

He added of Imperial Aura: "He's got loads of ability. I can't believe we got beat last time, I was confident all the way through the race but I think the winner is a nice horse. It's a competitive race but I think we'll be there or thereabouts."

"Global Citizen's got plenty of speed and he's a very good horse on his day. It's an exciting horse to ride, he's got loads of gears and enjoys his jumping. Hopefully he'll relax well and run a big race."

What they say

Kim Bailey, trainer of Vinndication
I've been absolutely delighted with his preparation for this race. He's not raced through the winter so will be nice and fresh, which I think is a good thing. It's a tough ask off the weight he has, but I'm very pleased with him.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Brave Eagle and Burbank
Both have been working very well. Brave Eagle has been a good, solid person and he keeps surprising us but he has probably got himself high enough up the handicap. Burbank won well at Newbury and then didn't run a bad race in the Sky Bet Chase. He should be competitive as well.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Cepage
We've always wanted to step him up in trip and now is as good a time as any. He's in good order and has run well at Cheltenham on a few occasions. I don't think the rain will make a lot of difference.

Sue Smith, trainer of Vintage Clouds
He's come out of his last race all okay, I think the ground was a bit gluey and he does prefer it a bit nicer than that. He seems to act at Cheltenham so we're hoping for a good performance and that he can go one better.

Colin Tizzard, trainer of Mister Malarky
I don't think he's ground dependent I just think he's in better form now than earlier in the season. He went beautifully at Kempton last time and, while it was only two and a half weeks ago, he looks bright and fresh and it's worth taking his chance.

Kildisart (front): in fine fettle according to Ben PaulingCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Ben Pauling, trainer of Kildisart
He seems to have come out his race at Kempton in fine fettle. I feel that's his first run this season that's gone to plan. The track was a bit tight so Cheltenham should suit much better – he won there on Trials Day and was fourth in what looked a red-hot JLT [now called Marsh]. The first-time headgear will help him travel well, I think he's got a great chance.

Paul Nolan, trainer of Discorama
Bryan [Cooper] was happy after he schooled him at Leopardstown on Monday last week and we think he's going there in good form. We know he likes Cheltenham so hopefully he can get his season back on track because his last couple of runs haven't been wonderful. He's had a little wind surgery since his last run, it's not a major operation but hopefully it'll help and that he can run a respectable race.

Alan King, trainer of Who Dares Wins
I think he's crying out for the trip. He's been placed in a Coral Cup and off his current mark I thought we had to go down the handicap route rather than the RSA. He likes to get into a scrap and it certainly looks like the right race for him.

Henry Daly, trainer of Atlanta Ablaze
The fuel gauge was beginning to empty when she fell at Cheltenham last year, it was a tired fall. If we could reproduce something like that then she'd run well in this. She's had a second go with wind surgery, the first go improved her 37lb so it'd be nice if this one could too! She's won on all types of ground so I don't think I hold a strong view on the going.

Noel George, assistant to Tom George, trainer of Activial
We were pleased with his run behind Native River at Newbury last time and he's come on from that. He ran a good race in this race last year when he was sixth, and if he could produce something similar and hit the places then we'd be delighted.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Cogry and Townshend
Cogry always runs well at Cheltenham but he might be at the top of the handicap a bit now for him. But, even so, he's in good form. Townshend did absolutely nothing wrong when he won at Ascot and seems to be improving.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Cobra De Mai
He's definitely got a chance in this race. He's back down to his last winning mark but he'd want as little rain as possible. If that's the case then I'd give him a really decent each-way chance.

The Conditional chases De Rasher Counter home in the Ladbrokes TrophyCredit: Getty Images

David Bridgwater, trainer of The Conditional
Warwick was a bit of a disappointment last time but I think he was just a bit under the weather. He's in good order and if he puts in a run like he did over course and distance in October, or the Ladbrokes Trophy, then he'd have to be in the first three – he'd have a massive chance on that form.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of No Comment
He ran well at the festival last year and would have an each-way chance.
Reporting by James Stevens

Spotlight verdict

Vinndication is the one who stands alone as the runner with the most potential. Among last season's most talented novices, he didn't do himself justice at the festival but he had worked poorly in the lead up and has since looked well ahead of the handicapper when swamping his rivals at Ascot in November. There should be more to come from him at this level before he goes on to better things. Mister Malarky has something to find with Kildisart on their form last spring but he looked the more convincing of the two when winning at Kempton recently and could be the main danger. The Conditional is also considered, along with Vintage Clouds, who has proved very much at home in this race for the last two years, and Big River, another to fare well here 12 months ago.
Emily Weber

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