The Nicky Henderson cliff face and the stats that spell doom for Shishkin

Punters have become used to the idea of Fakir D'Oudairies finishing second or sweeping up when Allaho stays in his box. It is therefore understandable, with Allaho now out for the season, that Fakir D'Oudairies is seen as an uninspiring option to prove the main beneficiary even though last season he won the Ascot Chase and Melling Chase. That feeling is all the stronger as he attempts to defend his title at Ascot, given he faces a charismatic and talented rival in Shishkin.

Forgiveness comes easy when you can do what Shishkin can. He has been a spectacular winner at two Cheltenham Festivals and won the most memorable jumps race of the decade so far in last year's Clarence House Chase at Ascot. It was no great surprise when, just hours after he plodded into third in December's Tingle Creek, half of Lambourn seemed to have backed him for the Ryanair and Gold Cup as those close to the Nicky Henderson yard floated the prospect of him going up in trip.

Shishkin's run in the Tingle Creek was certainly proof of something, but you could not be sure it was a need for further. A more worrying reason, a hangover from the 'rare bone condition' that meant he had never gone a yard in the Champion Chase last March, seems at least as plausible. And that is to say nothing of the wind surgery he has undergone since Sandown.