Stewards' Cup analysis: how to pick the winner of a race that bucks the trends

Saturday: 3.20 Goodwood
Coral Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap) | 6f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

The Stewards' Cup is a race that defies trends. Like many sprint handicaps these days, the higher floor makes all considerations along the lines of handicap marks moot. You have to be essentially Group-class to win. The age profile of winners is muddy. Three-year-olds do pretty well, with three winners from around 20 runners in the last decade, but that is not much higher than you might expect and there have been just as many 'veterans' in the winner's enclosure over the same timeframe.

The draw is straightforward, but impossible to know for certain in advance of the race. You want a horse near the pace. From looking at winners, you would also infer that being near a rail is an advantage too: dividing the field roughly in three, the wings have each produced four of the last ten winners, central draws only two. However, look at all placed horses and that becomes much more equal: 15 were drawn low, 12 middle and 13 high.