Expert analysis of a typically fiendish punting puzzle in the Coral Cup

2.50 Cheltenham
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) | 2m5f | Old Course | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

This race has tended to suit younger, less exposed types and Protektorat, who has been the subject of much conversation over the last three months, fits that profile.

The five-year-old went into many notebooks after finishing second to Mack The Man at Sandown in December, and the third, Song For Someone, has since landed the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle.

He boasts plenty of course experience and there is the distinct possibility a mark of 144 underestimates this lightly raced improver.

Canardier ran a blinder 12 months ago off a 2lb lower mark to finish fifth behind William Henry when trained by Dermot McLoughlin and now makes his first appearance for Willie Mullins, who is seven-handed.

He possesses winning Cheltenham form and is a must for the shortlist in a handicap that looks as ferociously competitive as ever.

Canardier’s stablemate Franco De Port, the mount of Paul Townend, also merits maximum consideration on this drop to handicap company.

The five-year-old appeals as just the type to take his form to another level for this significant step up in trip after staying on well for second behind the now 153-rated Stormy Ireland in a Naas Grade 3 hurdle in January.

Alfa Mix, who races in the colours of JP McManus, lacks Cheltenham experience but created a good impression when beating 14 rivals in a soft-ground Navan handicap hurdle in December.

A Navan second to Kilfenora the following month ensured his place in the Coral Cup line-up and he shouldn’t be far away.
Analysis by Richard Birch

Could the 2lb appeal make the difference for Dame De Compagnie?

Four of the last six winners of the Coral Cup have taken the race by a neck or shorter, so having just 2lb more on your back could be the fine margin between winning and losing.

Dame De Compagnie races off a handicap mark of 140, with trainer Nicky Henderson having successfully appealed a 2lb rise from the BHA handicapper.

Dame De Compagnie: was raised 8lb for winning at Cheltenham in DecemberCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

The mare was raised 8lb to a mark of 140 following a four-and-a-half-length win over Indefatigable at Cheltenham in December and has not raced since. In February Indefatigable won a Listed hurdle by six lengths and the handicapper subsequently raised Dame De Compagnie by an additional 2lb. This is known as a collateral change.

This adjustment was successfully appealed by Henderson on the grounds that Dame De Compagnie was the only runner, from 16 in the Cheltenham race, whose rating was increased following Indefatigable's subsequent win.

Nicky Henderson: successful in his appealCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com)

A BHA report, published on February 22, read: "The panel found it hard to see how a reassessment of a large field could result in only one rating being changed."

Following the successful appeal, Dame De Compagnie will run off 140 on Wednesday. Perhaps the 2lb will make all the difference.
Reporting by James Stevens

What they say

Eddie Harty, trainer of Kilfenora
He’s in great nick. He has to carry top weight, which won't be easy, but then again he has the weight for a reason. Simon [Torrens] is riding very well and is good value for the 7lb. Kilfenora will like the ground, while a lot of the others might not, and he stays the trip very well. He's a classy sort on his day.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Cracking Smart, Coko Beach and Black Tears
Black Tears is at least as good as Barra, who was placed in this race for us before. She comes here on the back of two really good runs and she travelled very well for a long way in the mares’ novice hurdle last year. She’s definitely got a chance. Cracking Smart has plenty of weight but he bounced back to form in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan and has come out of that race in great shape. Coko Beach can be very idle and we’ve put cheekpieces on to help.

Patrick Mullins, rider of Bachasson
He’s got plenty of weight for a small horse but we’re hoping he can run into a place.

Ballymoy: should be suited by the race according to Nigel Twiston-DaviesCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Ballymoy
He didn't really take to fences that brilliantly but produced a good performance when fifth going back over hurdles at Ascot last time. It's a big-field handicap, so anything can happen, but it should suit him.

Paul Townend, rider of Franco De Port
He put up a nice run when he won on his first start for us but has been beaten a couple of times since. It’s a big handicap, a bit of a lottery. The race can be won and lost by the time you get to the back of the first flight if you're unlucky. If he can get into a nice rhythm, he might be a little each-way play. Willie has plenty of runners in it but Franco De Port looks like he might have a little bit of improvement, even though he has plenty of weight.

Birchdale: one of three in the race for Nicky HendersonCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Birchdale, Dame De Compagnie and Burrows Edge
Birchdale is in good form, as is Dame, and don't forget Burrows Edge, who won the Lanzarote. I think all of them have got very good chances. I don't know which way round they'll finish, though.

Nick Gifford, trainer of The Mighty Don
He's in terrific form but chasing hasn't gone to plan this year. He's a course winner and I think he'll run a big race. He stays the trip and he comes here fresh as he's had an easier run-in than he's had in the past. We're hoping he can place.

Gary Moore, trainer of Traffic Fluide
He's been fantastic since Ascot, he couldn't be better. We're back over hurdles as we want to get one more run into him before the National. This was the only sensible race to go for. Aintree is his main target but we're not totally discarding this. He's a very talented horse and hopefully he'll give a good account of himself.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Alfa Mix
He’s in good order and the ground won’t be an issue. Whether he has that much up his sleeve, I don’t know, but he’s a lovely, big, raw horse who’ll be even better next year.

Champagne Well: winner at Cheltenham in OctoberCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Champagne Well
I think he's our best each-way chance of the meeting. He probably didn't stay the last two times when he ran over three miles. He's done well at the track before and we're really looking forward to him running.

Henry Daly, trainer of Honest Vic
I think he probably wants further, although he's been winning over two [miles] five [furlongs]. We've been slightly sitting back and waiting to go up in trip but a fast-run race will be good for him. He's in good order and, like all those handicaps, I'm glad Mr Mullins isn't running absolutely all of his horses so we can have a good go.

Charles Byrnes, trainer of Thosedaysaregone
Looking back, he was racing off a lovely mark of 126 at Leopardstown the last day but this is going to be a completely different ball game. He's fit and well and the ground shouldn't be any problem.

Alex Hales, trainer of Fagan
I thought he ran very well at Haydock last time, he went nicely for a long way and probably just needed it. He's an outsider and hasn't done anything for a bit. He travels sweetly and he'll stay the trip well. He goes very nicely at home and I'd be confident he'll outrun his odds. He's a live outsider.

Spotlight verdict

In a very strong field, the 5yo Alfa Mix brings conspicuous potential along with solid achievement from his two handicaps. He travels smoothly and stays on strongly, so can win this by taking another step forward. JP McManus has Dame De Compagnie among his four other runners and she impressed at this track in December but the chief threat to the selection may come from Champagne Well, who left a favourable impression with what he showed in good novice races here, as did Protektorat. Among the others with a shout are Black Tears, Honest Vic, last year's fifth Canardier and the worryingly unexposed Franco De Port.
Richard Austen

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