One for the sceptics? Keith Melrose analyses a fascinating Diamond Jubilee
3.35 AscotDiamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) | 6f | 4yo+ | ITV/SKY
While the Diamond Jubilee probably holds some sort of record for the most changes in name that have not been sponsor-driven, its place in the calendar has remained broadly consistent. It is where the six-furlong sprinters join the main line, having worked up to this point in races like the Duke of York or the Abernant.
One of those races has not yet been run this year, which drops something of a clue as to the major difference in this year's running of the Diamond Jubilee. Only three of the ten runners have made the track in 2020, and two of them are the outsiders of the field.
There could be some calculation involved in that. After this race, the best six-furlong horses will go on to the July Cup, Maurice de Gheest (travel permitting), Sprint Cup and Champions Sprint. They might be sprinters, but according to the Pattern there is no rush.
Besides Abernant second Breathtaking Look and Gladness Stakes runner-up Speak In Colours, only favourite Sceptical has seen the track in 2020. He has run only five times in all, winning all but the first of them. He was only stepped up to Listed company on his latest outing, but won with such ease at Naas that you could not accuse his connections of rushing his promotion to Group 1 company.
In theory, Sceptical's speed is such that he would be equally adept at five furlongs as over six. He missed the King's Stand, partly down to what would have been an eight-day turnaround but probably also out of a wish to duck Battaash. It is certainly fair to say that nothing in this field casts anything like so long a shadow.
The older sprinters need little introduction, particularly here as just about all of them (excluding Gifted Master, who needs a real test at this trip) are most famous for their exploits at Ascot. Dream Of Dreams was second to Blue Point in this race last year. Two of The Tin Man's three Group 1 wins have been over course and distance. Sands Of Mali was second in the Commonwealth Cup and won the Champions Sprint in 2018. The last two are particularly adept on softer ground and would be worth considering if the rain comes back one last time.
The four-year-olds need a bit more inspection. Khaadem's demolition job off 107 in the Stewards' Cup was a Lord North-like handicap performance but he failed to replicate it in two subsequent Group 1 runs.
Hello Youmzain is much more of a known quantity. He was third in the Commonwealth Cup, before winning the Sprint Cup and arguably going a bit too fast here in the Champions Sprint. He shaped better than eighth suggests in that race and looks like he is here to stay in the top sprints. Backing him each-way, especially with any firms offering four places, is arguably the safest bet in the race.
Although not necessarily in a betting sense, Shine So Bright is the most interesting runner of all. He proved a little hit and miss after giving Space Traveller weight and a beating in the Free Handicap, but the big day was an all-the-way win over Laurens. Subsequent runs over seven furlongs left the impression of a horse whose patience was being stretched, although note that good-to-soft ground was cited as an excuse at Newmarket in October.
Do not be put off by this being Shine So Bright's first run at sprint trips since the Mill Reef. He will more than likely be quick enough. He just may not lead. Hello Youmzain is the favourite in that regard, although Sceptical's five-furlong speed might mean that he also plays a part.
Keith Melrose, betting editor
'I think we went for the right race' says Hogan
Denis Hogan is happy with his decision. A little over a week ago, the trainer had the King's Stand in mind for his rapidly improving sprinter Sceptical, but after consulting his big-race jockey Frankie Dettori a decision was made to reroute him to Saturday's big race.
"I think we went for the right race," Hogan said. "Battaash was impressive but he got it his own way in the King's Stand. I'm happy we made the right decision in going for this race but I'd look forward to taking on Battaash in the future."
There might be a question mark over the ground for Sceptical but Hogan could not be happier with his speedster and expects a decent showing.
He explained: "Ground-wise, it's obviously an unknown, but he's a big, strong horse and he powered through my gallop during the winter, which is good and soft. That's the only indication we have, though, as he's never tried the turf soft."
Hogan added: "But he's in good form and he's travelled over well. He's been stabled with Henrietta Knight over the past few nights and I want to thank her for looking after him and our staff so well. Hopefully now we will get a little bit of luck in running."
What they say
Kevin Ryan, trainer of Hello Youmzain
We actually discussed going for the five-furlong King's Stand Stakes and the final decision was left to me. He ran a great race over six furlongs at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup and another good race there on Champions Day, when he ran a bit too free, so I felt he was tried and tested over course and distance and it was best to start with that. Hello Youmzain is a big, uncomplicated horse with a great mind who's in fine shape. I expect a huge run from him.
Angus Gold, racing manager to Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, owner of Khaadem
We hope the ground dries out a bit as the horse could not be in better form at home and it's time for the talking to stop and show us what he can do on the track. He got held up with a foot issue at one point last year but I know the team are very happy.
Alastair Donald, racing manager for King Power Racing, owners of Shine So Bright
He's been going well at home and hopefully the ground dries out a bit for him to show his best form.
Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Speak In Colours
He's in good shape. He had a good run over the same course and distance last year, the ground should be fine for him and it's an open enough race.
William Haggas, trainer of One Master
The softer the better for her. She is in really good form and because there's no seven-furlong race we had the choice of the Queen Anne over a mile she doesn't really stay or the Diamond Jubilee, which is too short for her. Last year she'd had a run before the Queen Anne, which she needed. This year there was no chance of a run first so we've plumped for the Diamond Jubilee for her first start in the hope that she finishes off her race well. She's very well.
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