Notebook must avoid the self-destruct button to claim the Arkle spoils

2.10 Cheltenham
Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) | 2m | Old course | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

The chances are that this year's Racing Post Arkle sits in the pack with regards to its overall quality. Given that the race has provided six winning odds-on favourites in the last ten years, its make-up as a betting prospect makes it very much an above-average one for punters.

It is only in years with no standout contender that the relatively threadbare Pattern for two-mile novice chasers, at least in Britain, becomes clear. A clearer diet of Grade 1s exists in Ireland and they have revolved around Notebook, who has won the Racing Post Novice Chase and the Irish Arkle last month.

If Fakir D'Oudairies, second to Notebook on St Stephen's Day, is to reverse the form it will be either in terms of stamina or the hints at self-destruction from Notebook. He seems to live on his nerves a little and bolted on the way to the start last time. Those may not appear this week, but it is not a trifling concern considering the Cheltenham Festival atmosphere.

The British challenge is widely dispersed. The home team of Arkle contenders have only one Grade 1 to work around, the Henry VIII in early December. That was won by Esprit Du Large, who has not run since. Others have and the form can be taken as solid. He shapes like a horse who will ultimately need further, but future stayers are no stranger to the Arkle roll of honour.

Esprit Du Large: a Grade 1 winner at SandownCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Esprit Du Large has run 24 days more recently than the shortest-priced British challenger, Brewin'upastorm. He has not even contested a Graded race over fences, but won two of the strongest early-season everyday novices convincingly. He was also a classy novice hurdler, travelling well through last year's Ballymore before fading into fourth. Time analysis suggests he failed for stamina rather than pace.

Other major British trials include the Wayward Lad and Kingmaker, won by Global Citizen and Rouge Vif respectively. Both were impressive, but to be extremely critical had their respective races run to suit so it is reasonable to ask how much more improvement to expect. That does not go for Al Dancer, who ran his best hurdles race in a big-field handicap but has contested small-field novices over fences. He is a dark horse.

On the subject of pace, a burn-up seems a reasonable assumption. Cash Back and Put The Kettle On are habitual front-runners and the likes of Maire Banrigh, Fakir D'Oudairies and Global Citizen have been known to press on. You need to jump and travel to win an Arkle and those instincts will need to be especially sharp in this year's running.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

De Bromhead: Notebook's jumping is similar to Sizing Europe

He is unbeaten over fences, has already beaten the second favourite and has been hailed one of the best jumpers of a fence Henry de Bromhead has ever had, so why is Notebook not shorter in the market?

Perhaps people are pointing to his hurdles form. He was rated only 135 in that sphere but De Bromhead believes the reason he was rated so low was because he kept running him over the wrong trip.

Since switching to two miles and going over fences Notebook has been flawless under Rachael Blackmore, whose good book of day one rides includes Honeysuckle in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle. Fakir D’Oudairies was not able to live with Notebook at Leopardstown over Christmas and although he tried on umpteen occasions Cash Back could not get by in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Favourites have a terrific record in the Arkle too, with six winning in the last eight years, and four of the last five winners have come from Ireland, so there are certainly plenty of positives if you fancy Notebook.

De Bromhead said: “Notebook has settled in very well and will wear earplugs on his way to the start.

“I kind of backed off our horses after Christmas and a lot of them ran quite fresh at the Dublin Racing Festival. He bolted to the start at Leopardstown, but I hope he was just fresh and psyched up to get going – I’m telling myself that was the case anyway.

“He seems to love jumping. Sizing Europe was pretty slick as a novice, but he’s similar.”

The trainer also runs Put The Kettle On, and said: “She looks to be well in herself. She’s the course-and-distance winner of a good trial in November.”
David Jennings

What they say

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Al Dancer
He's been running well all season so he must have a good chance. He's been doing well at the track too and the ground should be fine for him.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Brewin'upastorm
I think a fast run race will suit him very well and it wouldn't bother me if the overnight rain came as well. The harder they go the better his chance and I think he'll be doing his best work turning in. I think Fakir D'Oudairies and Notebook are the two to be wary of but if Brewin'upastorm had had another run I think he'd arguably be favourite. He's had a racecourse gallop and school and hopefully jumping won't be the reason he gets beat.

Paul Townend, rider of Cash Back
He is straightforward in that he has one way of running. He likes to get on with things and he is gaining good experience all the time. It will be a typical Arkle, fast and furious from the get-go. He has a bit to find with Notebook, but I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility that he could reverse the form.

Evan Williams, trainer of Esprit Du Large
It was always the plan to go there fresh and he has had a great preparation. We think he is a very smart horse.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Fakir D'Oudairies
He's in good shape since his run at Leopardstown over Christmas. His prep has gone well and we’re hoping for a big run. He ran well against Notebook but, obviously, has to step up to turn the tables. But it’s a different test and we’re hoping for the best.

Fakir D'Oudairies will fly the flag for JP McManus and Joseph O'Brien in the ArkleCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Ben Pauling, trainer of Global Citizen
He was very good the last day and he's a horse who's brilliant when he's right – he needs all the ducks in a line. He seems in good form at home and he'll go there fresh and well. We're really happy with him and it'd be massively in our favour if we avoid the rain. If anything is faster than him they'll be going very quick, this is exactly the type of race he needs as he wants a race with a lot of pace in it. Regardless, he will run and I think he'll put up a decent show.

Harry Whittington, trainer of Rouge Vif
He's fresh and well and has improved all season. Jumping is a big asset for him and he's coming into the race with his confidence on high. He finished a bit tamely at Cheltenham in November but had a wind operation after that and on the back of that he's improved. I don't think there's any issue with the track whatsoever but it's a very good Arkle and he's one of six or seven with a serious chance.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Maire Banrigh
I’m very pleased with her and she gets the mares’ allowance too, which will help. I’d prefer it if the rain stayed away from her as she wouldn’t want really soft ground. Two miles on ground just on the softer side will be fine for her and hopefully she can put up a big effort.

Spotlight verdict

Trying to second guess tactics is a risky game but, with plenty of potential front-runners, this ought to be run at a good pace. Notebook is the form pick on his win at Leopardstown over Christmas but he wasn't quite at the same exalted level when a workmanlike winner of another Grade 1 at the same track last time. He is still much respected but at bigger prices the suggestion is Rouge Vif, who has been an improved performer in his two runs since a wind operation. On the form of his eased-down win in a Warwick Grade 2 last time, he has a big chance. Brewin'upastorm has plenty going for him too and is third best ahead of the good five-year-old Fakir D'oudairies.
Mel Cullinan

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