Midlands National puzzle is best judged on merit - not on a trend that doesn't bear scrutiny

A surface reading would suggest that high-weighted horses, like Iwilldoit who has won the Welsh National and Classic Chase on his last two starts, do poorly in the Midlands National. Only one winner of this race in the last ten years has carried more than 10st 12lb.

But trends involving weights are one of my favourites to challenge. Iwilldoit is an excellent case in point. Plenty of Welsh National winners lump big weights to success at Chepstow. Plenty of recent Classic Chase winners have carried more than 11st as well. What is it about this race that crosses the threshold whereby high weights cannot win?

Frankly, it is a fairy story to believe there is any angle strong enough to make that difference. Plenty of horses have run well in at least two of the three races mentioned – some of them are in this field. The trend is just variance and Iwilldoit deserves to be judged on his own merits, not by the lead in his saddlecloth.