'It's as good a Challow as I can recall' - but can anyone stop Hermes Allen?

Saturday: 3.00 Newbury
Coral Challow Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m4½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Paul Nicholls is searching for a hat-trick in the Challow Hurdle and his Hermes Allen sets the standard following a wide-margin victory at Cheltenham last month, when he made all the running.

There were similarities between Hermes Allen's performance there and Bravemansgame's win in this race two years ago. Both set off in front and jumped fluently before going away to win easily, so can Hermes Allen emulate his stablemate by doing the same here?

The fundamental difference between the Challow that Bravemansgame won two years ago and this season's running is the number lining up against Hermes Allen. Bravemansgame faced only four rivals and it was easy to dominate, but Hermes Allen has as many as 12 challengers.

The pace looks set to be contested, with Vicki Vale, You Wear It Well, Kilbeg King, and Kansas City Star all capable of going forward, and it's possible that Hermes Allen will have to take a lead. It will be interesting to see how he copes with the early competition.

So where does Hermes Allen stand in the novice ranks judged on his Cheltenham win?

Facile Vega, Marine National, Gaelic Warrior and Hiddenvalley Lake all look more promising at this stage of their careers, but all are trained in Ireland and it is fair to argue Hermes Allen is the best novice hurdler in Britain. He gets his chance to prove that here.

His biggest danger probably comes from Ireland. The Paul Nolan-trained Joyeux Machin is his closest rival on Racing Post Ratings following his impressive victory in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse this month, when he was no stronger than at the finish and won going away.

Joyeux Machin looks certain to improve for the extra half-mile and he also jumped to his left around the right-handed Fairyhouse. The switch to an anti-clockwise circuit promises to suit.

Nolan has saddled 11 winners from 95 runners in Britain since the turn of the century and a £1 bet on each would have yielded a profit of £18.33. However, seven came before 2010 and you have to go back to Mrs Milner in last year's Pertemps Final at Cheltenham for his most recent success.

Fergal O'Brien is a trainer with a recent win in the race. He saddled Poetic Rhythm to score in 2017 and runs Crambo, Accidental Rebel and Marble Sands.

Paddy Brennan has partnered Marble Sands and Accidental Rebel on the majority of their recent starts, but he jumps off to ride Crambo for the first time. That would suggest the Ascot maiden winner is the best of the trio.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Unbeaten Crambo heads O'Brien trio

Arguably the most competitive running in recent times of a race which has been won by Denman, Bravemansgame, Large Action and Champ.

Fergal O'Brien, who claimed his only Grade 1 with Poetic Rhythm in this race five years ago, has three chances and his runners have already landed a total of ten races between them.

Pick of the squad could be Crambo, unbeaten in three career starts and ready for this step up in class based on a commanding victory on his hurdles debut at Ascot.

"Crambo won very well at Ascot," O'Brien said. "It would have been ideal to go for a Grade 2, but there wasn't anything around on the nice ground as the frost and snow came so we'll take our chance.

"It would be lovely if it was proper soft ground, which is what he really loves. I think the step up in trip is what he wants."

Four-time scorer Accidental Rebel and the progressive Marble Sands complete the O'Brien trio.

Fergal O'Brien: won the Challow back in 2017 with Poetic RhythmCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Hermes Allen
He has won his point-to-point, a maiden hurdle and a Grade 2 hurdle at Cheltenham. Before we ran at Cheltenham and Stratford he hadn't shown much at home. He seems to have come on a bit and worked out what life is all about. He's done lots of work, is very fit and fresh, and we're very happy with him. It's a step up, but I'm hopeful of a good run.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Idalko Bihoue
I wouldn't say this has been a plan, but every race we've tried to run him in has been cancelled. We think very highly of him and whether or not he's good enough, we'll find out. He's pleasing me at home.

Paul Nolan, trainer of Joyeux Machin
The less rain there is, the better his chance. He didn't handle heavy ground at Cheltenham in the Champion Bumper and I liked how he went away at the line on decent ground at Fairyhouse last time. The ground was beautiful at Leopardstown, but we didn't really see any point in taking on Facile Vega so hopefully this works out. He needs to improve and hopefully he can.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Kansas City Star
He's one we've liked and hopefully he'll continue to progress. This is a step up in class and he's also going up in trip so it'll be interesting to see how he gets on.

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Passing Well and You Wear It Well
They are two really lovely novices, but this looks one of the hottest Challows for a good while. Passing Well gallops, jumps and stays. He's a proper chaser for the future. I wanted to run You Wear It Well in a Haydock Listed race, but it was cancelled on account of frost.

David Pipe, trainer of Thomas Mor
He probably hasn't beaten very much, but he couldn't have been more impressive. We'll find out more at Newbury.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Vicki Vale
She's come on for her first run. We took West Balboa to this race after one run last year for the same owners and she's definitely got a chance.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read Saturday's previews:

1.50 Newbury: 'I toyed with the idea of the Challow' - who's hopeful of a big handicap run?

2.10 Warwick: a win for Wynne? Keith Melrose expects a bold show from Moss in veterans' chase

2.25 Newbury: who will add their name to the glittering honour roll in the Mandarin Chase?

2.32 Punchestown: 'I think he'll take some beating' - can in-form Barry Connell bag valuable pot?

3.35 Newbury: 'Natural' Nothin To Ask just one of host of progressive novices in hot handicap

Punchestown: Any Second Now starts out on road to Aintree return in quality conditions hurdle

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