'It looks the perfect starting point' - analysis and key quotes for a trappy three-year-old handicap

Had Reggae Runner not been nabbed on the line four years ago by Coolagh Forest, the Johnston stable would be seeking a fifth successive victory in the Royal Mile. That is an impressive record and Oisin Murphy’s mount Lion Of War can be considered the stable’s first string this year ahead of the Joe Fanning-ridden Finn’s Charm. 

Despite being rated 5lb lower than Finn’s Charm, Lion Of War is seemingly the better regarded. He was sent off an 11-4 chance for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last July after two impressive novice wins but a last-of-five finish in a race which failed to work out suggested a drop in class was required. Subsequent defeats at Listed level and in handicap company suggest he is about where he deserves to be off a mark of 87.

However, Lion Of War’s sire Roaring Lion came into his own as a three-year-old and it will be interesting to see how the ill-fated stallion’s first crop fare at that age. They could be slow-burners. 

Virtually guaranteed is improvement from Captain Winters, whose pedigree speaks for itself as a half-brother to seven Group horses who tended to thrive with age. The peak performances on Racing Post Ratings from that bunch ranged from 107 (Imperial Charm) to 118 (Cape Byron), with the likes of Ajman Princess and Third Realm (both 113) providing the filler in the sandwich. 

Captain Winters goes off a mark of 94 on his handicap debut after a progressive juvenile campaign in which his final outing at Pontefract in October may have been a run too many. 

If first-time cheekpieces have the desired effect – Kevin Ryan’s 13 per cent strike-rate when fitting the aid for the first time is almost in tandem with his overall 11 per cent success rate – then Captain Winters is presumed not to be the black sheep in a family of proven Pattern performers.
Analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Captain Winters
He was very progressive last year, he's wintered well and goes there in good order. We just felt he was going through the motions a little bit on his last run at Pontefract so we’re putting cheekpieces on to sharpen him up.

Simon Turner, racing manager to Hambleton Racing, owners of Manitou
He’s in really good order and has trained on well. It looks the perfect starting point for the season. The plan has always been to kick off in a good handicap and work from there. The good to soft ground will be fine for him and, while the draw in stall eight isn’t ideal, he does possess a bit of early zip.

Oisin Murphy: rides Lion Of WarCredit: Edward Whitaker

David Redvers, racing manager to Qatar Racing, owners of Lion Of War
He wouldn’t want the ground too soft. Charlie [Johnston] has always held him in high regard and we’re hopeful he’ll take a big leap forward from two to three like his father [Roaring Lion] did. It’s a bit of a fact-finding mission to see how he’s trained on, but we feel he's improved physically and mentally.

Marcus Tregoning, trainer of Dumfries
He’s in good order. We’ve gone to Musselburgh because the prize-money is so good and it’s a suitable race. His handicap mark is fair, and while he’ll have to transfer his all-weather form to turf, I don’t see that as a problem.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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