'I wouldn't swap him' - who is keen to take on Monmiral in a hot novice chase?

Sunday: 1.20 Cheltenham
Paddy Power Novices' Chase (Registered as the Dipper Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) | 2m4½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

Weighing up Graded novice chases in the middle portion of the season has its unique challenges. Who do you side with: horses who have shown the most promise in their nascent chasing careers or those who have a generally larger body of work over hurdles which may not be as relevant?

There is no universal approach. For every Thyme Hill, a top hurdler who suddenly clicked over fences in last week’s Kauto Star, there is a L’Homme Presse in this race last year. It is hard to believe now that he came into that race among the lowest-rated hurdlers in the field.

The early market for what is better known as the Dipper has come down firmly on the side of hurdles class. On BHA ratings and Racing Post Ratings, Thunder Rock should be favourite ahead of Monmiral. However, both scales make Monmiral a stone superior over hurdles and he has been installed as the early favourite.

Monmiral’s defenders could justifiably point to a lack of evidence that Thunder Rock has overtaken him over fences. He has run in only one chase after all, over 2m at Warwick, and ran into Jonbon. He will be fitter and probably more clued up for that run, when if anything his jumping was a bit cautious.

Meanwhile, Thunder Rock pinged his first fence in public at Uttoxeter in October and has not looked back. He beat a subsequent winner that day with any amount in hand. On his next and most recent start, he thumped Solo off level weights at Ascot and that horse filled the same position in handicap company at Kempton on Boxing Day.

While those two do not quite have this six-runner race between them, they deserve to take out an overwhelming slice of the book. Beauport has kept good company in a couple of chases but, because of his win over Millers Bank (in receipt of 12lb) in a Listed race at Carlisle, he must concede 5lb to Monmiral and Thunder Rock. That roughly doubles the amount of ground he must make up on the figures.

The other three are best described as useful handicappers, or at least they would be if they did not have further potential as chasers. In particular, Harper's Brook could be one to watch with an eye on the spring. He was second in a strong novice handicap at Carlisle and went one better at Bangor in heavy ground last time.

Both pieces of form have been advertised since, and on a line through Bangor third Barichello, Harper's Brook is arguably not as far off Thunder Rock as prices would imply. He probably has a bit too much to find to be of serious interest today, but in time it is expected that he will join Thunder Rock in putting a chasm between his hurdles and chase marks.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'Monmiral needed the run last time'

Monmiral bids to get off the mark over fences after bumping into short-priced Arkle favourite Jonbon on his chasing debut in November.

The Grade 1 winner chased home Epatante in the Aintree Hurdle in April before finishing second to another JP McManus-owned star, Jonbon, when beaten seven lengths over two miles at Warwick.

"He just needed the run and was never going to beat Jonbon," said Paul Nicholls. "He had a nice trip round and Harry [Cobden] was pleased with his performance. Two and a half miles should be more suitable."

Monmiral was winless in three starts last season after an unbeaten juvenile campaign but achieved his best Racing Post Rating of 152 over two and a half miles when finishing 14 lengths behind Epatante.

The market suggests his chief rival will be Thunder Rock, who is unbeaten over fences after claiming two novice handicap chases, most recently when winning by eight and a half lengths at Ascot.

He made his chase debut for trainer Olly Murphy over two miles, beating Brief Times by four and a half lengths under Adrian Heskin.

"This looks like a good race for him as two and a half miles is his trip," said Murphy. "He's not done a lot wrong in his two starts over fences. This will be his sternest test so far but I wouldn't swap him."

What they say

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Beauport
The softer the ground for him the better and there's quite a bit of rain forecast so maybe we'll be all right. Ballygrifincottage got him out of his comfort zone at Haydock last time and he didn't jump that well but hopefully he'll be better this time.

Patrick Neville, trainer of The Real Whacker
Hopefully he'll improve from his win here and his course form makes a difference. It's a step up but he's ready to have a go.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Harper's Brook
On ratings it seems he has it all to do but I think he's better suited by a stronger race. We'll sit and wait with him, and see if he's good enough to go past them after the last.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Read more of Sunday's previews:

1.35 Musselburgh: 'I couldn't be happier with him' - will the Auld Reekie be won by the home team?

1.55 Cheltenham: 'We might see a different horse' - key quotes for tricky New Year's Day handicap

2.15 Tramore: 'We're delighted with him at home' - can Stattler see off a Gold Cup winner?

2.30 Cheltenham: Marie's Rock gifted 'handy allowance' on big-race return

3.05 Cheltenham: 'He looks overpriced at 10-1' - which trainer has high hopes at Cheltenham?

Fairyhouse: 'He should take to fences like a duck to water' - Mullins excited by Berlais

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