'I think Listowel will really suit him' - can the Galway Plate hero become the Kerry National king?

There has only been one winning favourite of the Kerry National this century. That was Northern Alliance in 2009 and there have been winners at 33-1, 25-1, 20-1, 16-1 and 14-1 since then. Not even subsequent Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated, running off a mark of just 145, could get the job done for market leaders in 2021 as he departed at the third fence. 

It has been tight at the top of the market all week, but it is looking increasingly likely that Salvador Ziggy will be handed the poisoned chalice. 

The seven-year-old is unbeaten over fences and has won his three chasing starts by a total of 30 and a half lengths, albeit in much shallower waters than these. Jack Kennedy is seeking his first success in his native county's biggest race and has opted for the gelding from the seven-strong team of Gordon Elliott. 

That said, he probably couldn't have ridden Ash Tree Meadow even if he wanted to. Danny Gilligan keeps the ride after his masterclass from the front in the Galway Plate and his claim will be a huge asset once again. 

That claim is only 5lb now, rather than the 7lb at Ballybrit, and Ash Tree Meadow is running off a 10lb higher mark too. Life will be much tougher this time, but he is a young, unexposed and improving chaser who certainly doesn't have to lead and it would be foolish to write him off. 

Salvador Ziggy: could go off favouriteCredit: Patrick McCann

Hewick looked poised to complete the Galway Plate-Kerry National double last year before he cruelly crashed out at the last and Ash Tree Meadow will give it a good rattle, especially if the ground doesn't deteriorate too much. The better the surface, the better squeak he has. 

Speaking of the surface, Ain't That A Shame will relish any rain. Both his wins have had heavy in the going description and he is the one horse in the field who has the potential to blow this field apart off his mark. He travelled beautifully through the Grand National before the petrol light came on. He looked a blatant non-stayer over 4m2½f there, but back over 3m with conditions to suit, he is surely going to take the world of beating. 

Female riders have won the Kerry National four times since 2014 and Rachael Blackmore could easily make that five here. She was successful on Poker Party in 2019 and is chasing her second victory in the race on a horse who hasn't won as much as he should have. Ain't That A Shame could make up for that here, though.

It is also worth pointing out that three of Henry de Bromhead's last eight runners have won. 

Joseph O'Brien is chasing a hat-trick. Assemble and Busselton have won the last two runnings, but it is hard to envisage A Wave Of The Sea making a big splash and making it three in a row for the stable. Others are less exposed and better handicapped. 

'Ziggy has done nothing wrong so far' - is unexposed novice the answer?

Galway Plate hero Ash Tree Meadow captains a strong team from Cullentra House as Gordon Elliott goes in search of his third Kerry National. 

He was successful with Wrath Of Titans (2016) and Potters Point (2017), both steered to victory by Lisa O'Neill, and he has seven of the 18 runners this time around. 

Elliott said of Ash Tree Meadow: "It's hard to get away from him after what he did in the Galway Plate. Danny [Gilligan] got on well with him that day and rides again, taking 5lb off. I think Listowel will really suit him. He doesn't have to make the running either, it was just the way the race worked out at Galway. It wasn't the plan to be in front, he just ended up there."

Salvador Ziggy is three from three over fences and has looked a real professional on each start. The trainer said of his chances: "Salvador Ziggy hasn't done much wrong. He probably lacks a bit of experience for a race like this but he's done everything right over fences so far."

On the rest of his team, he added: "We know Chemical Energy goes well fresh and he would be dangerous if the ground were good. The Goffer and Tullybeg like good ground too, while Gevrey is the opposite and any rain that falls will certainly be in his favour. Hurricane Georgie has run some big races in big handicaps like this and hopefully she can do so again here."

What they say 

Willie Mullins, trainer of Authorized Art and Ciel De Niege
Authorized Art is good. He ran a big race in the Galway Plate and I've been very happy with him since. The track will be fine for him but the weather and the ground worries me. Ciel De Niege wasn't beaten too far in the Plate either and any improvement on that puts him right in the mix. I hope there is more to come from him.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Ain't That A Shame, Gabbys Cross, Toss Again and Life In The Park
Ain't That A Shame is in good form and the more rain the more merrier for him – the softer the better. Gabbys Cross is in good form too. He ran well in the race last year when the ground was a bit lively for him so we're having another go. Toss Again will only run if the ground is nice and Life In the Park's best form is on decent ground too.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of A Wave Of The Sea
It was a good run the last day at Galway. I hope the ground doesn't go too soft and in an ideal world we'd prefer nice ground for him, but he always runs his race and hopefully he can do so again.

Enda Bolger, trainer of Stealthy Tom
We're throwing him in at the deep end, but he's had a great summer and he's got a nice weight so we're giving it a go. He won well at Killarney but he takes on a better calibre of horses here.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Stumptown
He will need to have come on a good bit from his run at Galway and hopefully he has. He seems in good at home anyway.

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