Graeme Rodway crunches the numbers to see if the inside draw offers value

1.45 Chester
Satchell Moran Solicitors Business Interruption Claims Handicap | 5f | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

It is common knowledge a low draw is favourable at Chester. Since the start of 2015 there have been 81 runners from stall one in races over shorter than six furlongs at the track and 14 of those won.

That’s a 17 per cent strike-rate and an impact value of 1.41, while runners from the inside berth beat 65 per cent of their rivals in those races, more than any other stall. Backing stall one blind showed a profit in ten of the 15 years from the start of the century.

However, the market has adapted and that is clear from the actual/expected winners figure. This measures how all 81 runners from stall one have performed against market expectations and an A/E figure of 0.79 suggests they have underperformed. According to the betting, stall one should have provided nearer to 18 winners and a £1 stake on all 81 yielded a loss of £34.48.

Jabbarockie has got the inside berth and his front-running tactics should be ideal. He will take some catching if he gets out in front from his plum stall, but the figures outlined above point to the market being all over him, so maybe the value lies elsewhere.

There have also been 81 runners from stall two in races over shorter than six furlongs here since the start of 2015 and 22 of those won. That’s a 27 per cent strike-rate and this time the market hasn’t adapted. The A/E figure is 1.47 and a £1 bet on each yielded a profit of £8.67.

Mondammej comes from stall two and he won’t be seen early, but the race might pan out perfectly for his waiting tactics as he can sit behind Jabbarockie and try to pounce late.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Alston 'excited' about Jabbarockie chance

Jabbarockie is in possession of the prized stall-one draw for this contest over the lightning quick 5f course, and the advantage was neatly summed up by his trainer Eric Alston.

“We’re drawn in stall one so we have to be excited about his chances, don’t we?” he said. “He’s come out of his run at Musselburgh well, although going up 3lb for winning a short head makes life tougher.”

In the last nine years only one horse drawn in a stall higher than four has triumphed in this race, when Doctor Parkes scored for Alston in 2011, and the trainer is optimistic about the prospects of another success.

“He’s been in good order since Musselburgh and we’ve waited for this race as there’s not really been anything else for him,” he said. “The ground should be what he wants and we’re looking forward to seeing what he can do again.”

What they say

Steve Brown, husband of Julie Camacho, trainer of Makanah
He tends to go well fresh but he carries top weight in a competitive race. He'll probably come on a touch for the run. We do like him, though, and think he’s talented.

David Evans, trainer of Lihou
He ran okay at Goodwood last week but it’s not really his track and the ground was a bit quick. He’s better around Chester and he likes a bit of ease in the ground.

Simon Bridge, director of Ontoawinner, owners of Corinthia Knight
We gave him a real long break over the winter and we gave him a bit of an MOT. He ran a belter on his comeback when we knew he needed it and we’d hope he’d come on for that. The draw is okay.

Antony Brittain, trainer of Mondammej
We were very pleased with his performance when he won at Pontefract last time, which was his first run on turf. He’s a bit of a hold-up horse so whether Chester is ideal for him I’m not sure. We think he’s got more improvement in him still.

Tim Palin, director of Middleham Park Racing, owners of Copper Knight
We were a little disappointed with his comeback at Musselburgh but hopefully it was a case of just blowing away the cobwebs. He’s drawn well, will like the ground and has form at the course.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

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