Expert analysis from Keith Melrose plus key trainer quotes for the Palace House

Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 5f, 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

This looks a below-average renewal of the Palace House, even though its proximity to Royal Ascot should have in theory increased its importance.

With a few exceptions, it has generally taken a mid-110s performance to win the race in recent years. Add in the fillies' allowance and Shades Of Blue meets that standard on the back of her second to subsequent Abbaye winner Glass Slippers at Longchamp in September. She remains something of an unknown quantity, more so than the likes of Judicial, whose level is well known by now.

Major Jumbo falls into that category, but he is reliable and has a good record in the early months of the year. He was third in this race last year before going on to finish second in the Duke of York. He would be an opportunistic winner at Group level but might have found just such an opportunity.

Most popular in the betting has been Far Above. He has what could reasonably be described as a middle-distance pedigree and started over 7f, dropping back in trip as the speed he possessed became clear. He won a Listed race at Deauville over 6f having pulled hard when last seen in July. It is hoped that connections are seeing more evidence than just freegoing for dropping him back further to the minimum trip as he goes up in grade. It is hard to know what to make of him, although that he has pace is not in doubt.

Even if you are not betting in the Palace House, keep an eye out for how the race takes shape. Racing will switch to a wider, stands' side configuration on Saturday so the rail bias seen on Thursday and Friday may not hold. The Palace House will be punters' first big clue in that regard.

Analysis by Keith Melrose

What the stats say

There have been four winning fillies or mares in the last ten years, a not inconsiderable return for distaff runners who have accounted for 24 out of 136 runners during the period. Put another way, fillies and mares have won 40 per cent of the time from less than 18 per cent of the horses to face the starter.

What the trainers say

David O'Meara, trainer of Arecibo
He's a hugely talented horse. He's difficult enough to win with, though we did win with him at Ayr last year, but he ran good races in the Portland and in a Listed race at Ascot. He travels like he's going to win and doesn't always deliver, but I hope he's grown up and matured a bit this year.

James Tate, trainer of Far Above
He's one of the quickest horses I've trained but he can't take too much racing quickly. He's matured again since winning the Prix Kistena at Deauville and looks to be blessed with plenty of speed so we're trying five furlongs.

PJ McDonald and Far Above will be bidding to follow up their victory in the Prix Kistena at Deauville last summerCredit: Racing Post / Scott Burton

Steve Brown, husband and assistant to Julie Camacho, trainer of Judicial
Hopefully the ground will stay on the quicker side. He's in good form and the only question is whether he is vulnerable to a few of the younger horses. There are a few in there with improving profiles. But we're happy with him and we're looking forward to seeing him back on the track.

Kevin Ryan, trainer of Major Jumbo
He is a very consistent and game horse and any rain would be a benefit. He's in great form at home and we're very hopeful of a big run.

James Bethell, trainer of Moss Gill
He won very well at Wolverhampton and they stuck him up rather a lot for that which rather put him out of handicaps as he is not very big to be carrying top weight. But he is in good form and we'll find out whether he is quite good enough for Group 3. I think he's done nothing wrong in his races and he's got some pretty good figures behind him so we'll hope for the best. Newmarket's Rowley Mile has not been a very lucky course for me for a very long time.

Michael Dods, trainer of Queens Gift
She's been fine and although it's a very big step up in class, I think she deserves a crack at it. We would have liked to have had a run into her before in a Listed race or even for a race in France. We've got to start somewhere and then we'll see where we go. She likes that quicker ground so that will be no problem to her.

Clive Cox, trainer of Shades Of Blue
I'm really pleased with how she has done over the winter. Her form was rock-solid last year and I think she'd done plenty by the time she was well beaten in the Prix de l'Abbaye and I think you can put a line through that run.

Reporting by Scott Burton

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