'Everybody is up against it' - is there any stopping Ryanair banker Allaho?

Thursday: 2.50 CheltenhamRyanair Chase (Grade 1) | 2m4½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

The time comparison on Tuesday between Honeysuckle and Supreme winner Constitution Hill was revealing, but the best day for such an exercise at Cheltenham these days is Thursday.

The Ryanair and Plate take place over the same course and distance (2m4½f) about 80 minutes apart and, since its inauguration in 2011, the Golden Miller Novices' Chase (known as the Turners) starts off the day over fractionally shorter (2m3f) on the same chase track.

Five of the nine runners in this year's Ryanair ran in one of the above races last season. Four were in the Ryanair: emphatic winner Allaho, plus Fanion D'Estruval (who finished fifth), Melon and Mister Fisher.

The fifth horse was Shan Blue, who ran in the Golden Miller (then the Marsh). He runs for just the third time since and is probably the most enigmatic runner in the field. He has not run since October, when he fell three out in the Charlie Hall when 20 lengths clear and with the race at his mercy. Pinning down what he might have achieved is tough. RPRs have him at 172, but senior handicapper Steve Mason would readily admit to some educated guesswork being involved.

Shan Blue (left): was fifth in the Marsh Novices' Chase at last year's Cheltenham FestivalCredit: Edward Whitaker

What can be measured accurately is Shan Blue's pace, particularly relative to Allaho. This can be done from the Marsh and Ryanair, with an allowance made for the slightly different distances. Basically, they were timed from what was the second fence in the Ryanair, first in the Marsh. It is not perfect, but it will more than do.

The comparison is revealing. Fast times are normally run by going quickly all the way through and Allaho showed that. He covered the distance from our start to the last fence a circuit out more than 30 lengths faster than Shan Blue. However, from the first fence on the final circuit, when Harry Skelton visibly raised the tempo on Shan Blue, that gap was drastically cut. By the time they jumped three out there was only about three lengths in it. But Shan Blue, having run so inefficiently, could not keep it up. At the line, he was nearly 26 lengths down and 12 lengths behind Marsh winner, Chantry House.

You would doubt Skelton will be so cavalier again, not least because of Shan Blue's recent absence, but what this shows is Shan Blue has the speed to make Paul Townend's job on Allaho much more than simply a time trial.

It is also to be remembered the Marsh came after a run of hard races for Shan Blue. He is an enthusiastic sort and an excellent jumper who gave himself hard races in the Kauto Star (won) and Scilly Isles (second) before turning up for a third Grade 1 in a row at Cheltenham. Of course, now he is fresh.

Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated ought to be factored into pace considerations, too. Davy Russell is at his best around Leopardstown and made best use of his mount's tactical speed last month. Whether he can do so again in this race, having dictated last time to the not-quite-ready Minella Indo, non-staying Janidil and enigmatic Asterion Forlonge is up for question.

It at least makes sense to drop Conflated in trip, as it certainly does Janidil. He has had two tries at three miles and the conclusion has to be the trip stretches him.

Before that, he came as close to any have to beating Allaho over this trip in recent times in the John Durkan in December. Yes, Allaho was rusty that day, but so was Janidil in all likelihood at an unflattering SP of 22-1 after seven months off. He only came into his own last spring, so remains unexposed and would be top of the shortlist to take advantage should Allaho either spoil his own chances, or have them sabotaged by a talented fellow front-runner.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Is Allaho a certified banker?

The betting suggests Allaho is the banker of the week as the dual top-level winner is the shortest-priced runner, but is he a sure thing when seeking to become the second dual winner of the Ryanair?

History suggests it is not the most straightforward of tasks. Albertas Run landed back-to-back runnings in 2010 and 2011 but Riverside Theatre, Un De Sceaux and Min are among seven previous winners who failed to strike in this 2m4½f event for a second time.

Paul Townend's mount, owned by Cheveley Park Stud, has 6lb to spare with Conflated on official ratings and recorded a joint-best Racing Post Rating of 178 – mirroring the figure he achieved in this race last year – when successful in a Thurles Grade 2 in January.

Allaho has won five of his nine starts when sent off favourite, although he is 3-3 in such circumstances outside of novice chase company in the last two seasons.

Townend said: "Allaho was hugely impressive in the Ryanair under Rachael Blackmore last year. Hopefully he can put in a similar performance and that should be good enough. Conflated is interesting after winning over further at Leopardstown.

"That said, we set the standard and if he can reproduce anything like last year, he will be good enough. He's my best chance of the day."

Mullins seeks a fifth victory in the last seven runnings and also saddles Melon, a four-time Cheltenham Festival runner-up and the mount of Patrick Mullins, and the Mark Walsh-ridden Janidil.

Gigginstown glory reliant on Conflated

Many darts have gone astray at the Ryanair Chase for Gigginstown and the owners rely on Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated this season.

The 2018 winner Balko Des Flos is the sole scorer from 15 runners for connections, with First Lieutenant and Don Cossack beaten favourites since 2013, while 47 per cent of their runners placed.

The Gordon Elliott-trained Conflated defeated last year’s Gold Cup winner Minella Indo by six and a half lengths for a first Grade 1 success at Leopardstown, with connections opting for a crack at this rather than the British equivalent on Friday.

Elliott said: "Everybody is up against it with Allaho, but Conflated produced a proper Grade 1 performance last time and he was very good over this trip at Navan in December, albeit at a much lower level. He definitely has a chance."

Skelton takes aim with returning Blue

It may well speak volumes that Shan Blue contests this Grade 1 rather than a handicap chase at the meeting given he could not be raised for his dramatic exit in the Charlie Hall Chase in October.

Shan Blue returns from a 138-day break but trainer Dan Skelton is more concerned about the opposition than the layoff.

Skelton said: "It's been a strange season for him because obviously he had to have time off after he fell when he was going to win the Charlie Hall. He looks well and his work's been good.

"It's not a problem being fresh, I've done loads of work with him and I'm not worried about fitness. He's got to take on Allaho and others, that's the hardest bit!"

What they say

Joe Tizzard, son and assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of Eldorado Allen
He was very impressive when winning the Denman Chase and he's been competitive in good races all season. He's run well at the Cheltenham Festival and we think he can do so again.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Fanion D'Estruval
He ran in this race last year but he's an improved horse since then. Hopefully we can see him produce a good run.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

Thursday's Cheltenham Festival previews:

1.30 Cheltenham: 'It'll be some spectacle' – key quotes ahead of Bob Olinger v Galopin Des Champs

2.10 Cheltenham: 'A Grade 1 winner carrying 10st, it's up to him' – clues for the Pertemps Final

3.30 Cheltenham: Paisley Park 'likes to have a laugh' but can he produce another miracle?

4.10 Cheltenham: 'He looks to have been overlooked' – analysis and trainer quotes for the Plate

4.50 Cheltenham: Dinoblue heads seven runners for Willie Mullins in bid to resume normal service

5.30 Cheltenham: 'He's really turned the corner' – key quotes and insight for the Kim Muir

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