Classy juveniles clash at Newcastle and a possible winter sprinter to follow

Talksport Download The App EBF Conditions Stakes | 6f | 2yo | Sky

A significantly increased prize fund for this race has been met with what is almost certain to be an above-average field.

In five years, the average winning Racing Post Rating has been around 100. Three of the seven declared runners this time have already reached that level and they are among those who could become contenders for the equivalent race on All-Weather Finals Day or even the Commonwealth Cup trials in the spring.

The wind is clearly with the William Haggas-trained Alpha Capture, whose Listed win at York came just ten days ago. He is a warm order in the early betting while Kinta, whose level of form matches Alpha Capture's once weight-for-sex is allowed for, and fellow Listed winner Shouldvebeenaring sit at a seemingly overly respectful distance in the market.

Yet there is more to Alpha Capture than recency bias. He came into the Rockingham Stakes off the back of one of the hottest juvenile races of the year, the sales race at the St Leger meeting, in which he finished second. It turns out he split the first two in Redcar's Two-Year-Old Trophy and had the winner of a similar valuable sales race at the Curragh in fourth.

While Alpha Capture was somewhat workmanlike last time, he arguably did well to overhaul the runner-up at all and the stiffer six furlongs that Newcastle provides ought to suit.

He is right to be a clear favourite but the other two deserve to be taken seriously. Also take note of Never Just A Dream, who is two from two on the all-weather and has only been found out when tried in the Gimcrack and Middle Park. While the big players might dip into this honey pot and disappear for the winter, Never Just A Dream may well hang around for an all-weather campaign.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Tom Marquand, rider of Alpha Capture
He's going there off the back of a Listed success at York and his previous second at Doncaster was also strong form. If he takes to the all-weather there's no reason why he shouldn't be very competitive.

Cameron Noble, rider of Never Just A Dream
He's a previous course-and-distance winner and this will be a lot easier than the Middle Park in which he ran last time. He likes his own way, so the fact he was taken on early was not ideal that day and he looks to be drawn on the right side of the track. The Haggas horse looks the one to beat but I expect him to go very close.

Tim Palin, director of racing for Middleham Park Racing, owners of Shouldvebeenaring
A stiff six furlongs such as this should be him playing at home. He was outclassed in the Mill Reef Stakes but had excuses last time at York, as we declared him on good ground and it went good to soft which doesn't suit. There is a whiff of disappointment around him, so if he doesn't win we'll put him away and try and get him qualified [for the finals] in the spring. That said, the Haggas horse looks hard to knock over.

Jack Mitchell, rider of Bakeel
It's his first time on the all-weather and he's a horse who always promised to do better than he has. I know Jane Chapple-Hyam was happy with his last run and he has a nice draw. Whatever he does this year is a bonus as he looks the sort to do better as a three-year-old.

George Boughey, trainer of Kinta
She possibly wasn't at her best in the Lowther Stakes at York last time which is why we've given her plenty of time. She's two from two on the all-weather and her previous form with Lezoo stacks up very well, so we expect a nice run.
Reporting by David Milnes

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