Can Samburu end long three-year-old drought in the Bunbury Cup for the Gosdens?

Saturday: 3.50 Newmarket
bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) | 7f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

The record of three-year-olds in the Bunbury Cup is a strong demonstration of why it is often prudent to look beyond winners when inspecting trends.

It is 24 years since Ho Leng became the most recent three-year-old to win the race. However, relatively few try and those that do perform admirably.

The effective floor for three-year-olds in the race tends to land in the mid-to-high 90s on BHA ratings. That precludes plenty of the more progressive sorts and contributes to only seven having run in the race over the last ten years. Nonetheless, that small group contains two horses that finished second, plus a fourth and a fifth.

In short, do not let the trends put you off Samburu. He finished sixth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and it could have been even better.

He raced freely early on and briefly got to the front around a furlong and a half from home before fading. Considering he suffered for over-racing, it is a little surprising the cheekpieces have been retained.

Many of the market principals – Samburu, Montassib, Jumby and Il Bandito – are all drawn in roughly the same middle-to-low section of the course in a maximum field of 20.

High draws have a narrow advantage in recent runnings, but it is more important to track the right horses than race up a certain part of the course. Prominent racers have done well, with the last three winners having led or tracked the leaders.

The pace breakdown in the Bunbury Cup is not straightforward and made more difficult by the tendency for multiple groups to form. Il Bandito in nine and Cruyff Turn in ten are likely to be up there and they could be the horses to watch in the first couple of furlongs.

The James Horton-trained Il Bandito is a really interesting runner in general as he is progressive for his new, upwardly mobile yard and shaped as though a return to seven furlongs would suit last time.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Big day for O'Neill

Kieran O’Neill takes his most important ride of the season on Samburu for John and Thady Gosden and knows all about his mount having steered him to a debut win at Yarmouth last October.

The son of Kingman went on to win twice more at Salisbury and York this spring, but lost his unbeaten record when finishing sixth in his first Group test in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.

Samburu: set to be a big-race mount for Kieran O'Neill in the Bunbury Cup

O'Neill said: "I thought Samburu was going to be a Group horse when I won on him at Yarmouth, but he has a lot of class about him and he’s improved through handicaps.

"He’s up against some exposed handicappers but if he runs as he’s been working he’ll be bang there at the finish."

What they say

Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Accidental Agent and Jumby
It’s a shame they have to take each other on but both go there in great form. Christophe Soumillon is riding Jumby, which is his first for us, and we hope he is as excited about the ride as we are. Jumby has probably got the better chance as he’s the youngest and has less weight but you can never discount Accidental Agent.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Silent Film
His race split into two groups at Royal Ascot where he was drawn on the wing on the stands’ side, which didn’t suit him. He’s been freshened up since and has a stands’ side draw.

Chris Dixon, member of The Horse Watchers, owners of Rhoscolyn
We were delighted with his run at Royal Ascot and these big handicaps suit him really well. David [O'Meara, trainer] is happy with him and he seems fresh and well at home, so he’s ready to go. He’ll hopefully run well again in what looks another hot race.

Kevin Philippart de Foy, trainer of Vafortino
He won the Victoria Cup and then wasn’t disgraced on his return to Ascot at the royal meeting. He’ll have to put up a career best to win but he goes there in good shape.

Tim Easterby, trainer of Cruyff Turn
He's very well and I think he'll run well but it's a very tight race. He ran okay at Ascot but maybe the stiff track didn't suit and he's dropping back to seven furlongs now. I'm very happy with the draw.

Thady Gosden, joint trainer of Al Rufaa and Samburu
Al Rufaa took his time to come to hand this year but likes the track and the ground so should not be discounted. Samburu is due to go up 7lb and is drawn next to the favourite so should go well.

William Haggas, trainer of Montassib
He's very well and likes fast ground. He may want a mile but he'll run a good race.

Charlie Hills, trainer of The Attorney and Tommy De Vito
The Attorney is capable in a race of this nature and goes there in good form. He's run well at both Newmarket tracks and handles them well. Tommy De Vito should strip fitter for his last run off a break. He had a bad draw that day and never got into it but returning to seven furlongs will suit.

George Margarson, trainer of Ropey Guest
He ran very well in the race last year and we go there hopeful again providing his draw pans out. He’s not been put up in the handicap for finishing second at Royal Ascot and we’ve booked a handy claimer in the shape of Callum Hutchinson.

Nicola Barron, joint-trainer of Persuasion
It was a long, slow spring for him and it took him a while to pull himself together. He's looking well now and we're very happy with him. I think the draw wasn't looking the greatest yesterday but we'll see.
Reporting by David Milnes

Saturday's race previews:

3.00 Ascot: 'This summer she's blossomed' - Boughey fields transformed filly in hot handicap

3.15 Newmarket: 'You don't do what he did unless you're special' - Superlative Stakes lowdown

3.35 Ascot: Can Chindit make it a terrific ten straight winning favourites in Summer Mile?

4.05 York: Does William Haggas hold the Cup key again with lightly raced Mahrajaan?

4.25 York: 'Special horse' Perfect Power bids for fourth Group 1 success

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