Can Mullins' quartet upset Minella Melody to keep perfect mares' novice record?

4.50 Cheltenham
Daylesford Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run) | 2m1f | 4yo+ | RTV

There has been only one constant in this race's short history: the dominance of Willie Mullins. The winners have varied in price from 4-7 to 50-1, but all of them have been sent from Closutton.

Mullins has four entries as he bids to keep his perfect record in the race, although none stand out. Three of them were beaten by Minella Melody, the likely favourite here, in the Solerina at Fairyhouse last time. Colreevy looked the best of them that day and it could be argued that her prospects of reversing the form are better than prices imply.

The reason for that would be conditions. Colreevy travelled every bit as well as Minella Melody and was outstayed after landing a touch awkwardly at the last and that race was over a furlong further than this one.

Another Mullins' runner, Concertista, has strictly the best form and by quite a way. She achieved it in handicaps, finishing third under a big weight in a Grade B event at the Dublin Racing Festival. She too shaped as though dropping back in trip will pose no issue and now has Daryl Jacob taking the ride.

Willie Mullins: has won all four runnings of the mares' novice hurdleCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

The main British challenge, in fact the only British-trained mare shorter than around 16-1, is Floressa. Her win at Newbury in November looks strong form and she emerged with credit behind Lady Buttons in open company at Doncaster last time, squeezed up after the last in a race that turned into a sprint. There seems little prospect of a similar scenario playing out here.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Ard Abhainn and Mount Ida
Ard Abhainn stays well and probably wants further, but the New course is a stiff test of stamina. I was very pleased she was able to win over two miles at Thurles. I could definitely see her involved when it matters. Take out Mount Ida's last run and she's got a good profile for this race. Her last run was too bad to be true. If she hadn't shown up there, she'd have an each-way squeak.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Emmas Joy
She's a tough, hardy mare who won a Grade 2 last time. Two miles on this ground is ideal and I think the New course suits her better than the Old. It's a massive step up and she has to carry a penalty, but at least she's been there and done it.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Floressa
She would have a good chance. Lady Buttons beat her last time and we finished third but she should have finished second as she got knocked all over the place.

Floressa: will fly the flag for the in-form Nicky HendersonCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Minella Melody
It looks a very good race but hopefully she’s a good mare and will run well.

Paul Townend, rider of Colreevy
She found only Minella Melody too good for her at Fairyhouse. We get 5lb off her this time so that will hopefully put them a bit closer together.

Colin Bowe, trainer of Fort Worth Texas
I don't think she'll win, but she stays well and will be doing her best work in the finish. If that's good enough to get her a place, brilliant.

Tom Gibney, trainer of Rhythm Divine
It's all about the ground. We're very worried about soft ground as we thought it would have dried out a little more.

Harry Fry, trainer of Whitehotchillifili
She appreciated the drop back in trip last time and won't mind the underfoot conditions. She needs to improve again to place.

Spotlight verdict

Willie Mullins has won all four runnings of this race and holds another strong hand, notably with last year's runner-up Concertista who is taken to go one better. She took a major step back in the right direction on her latest outing and comes out top on adjusted ratings in this field. Her stablemates Colreevy and Dolcita also enter calculations, but last time out they were beaten by the Henry de Bromhead-trained Minella Melody, who is feared most. Floressa, from the Henderson yard, completes the shortlist.
Steve Boow

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