Can exciting Espoir De Romay continue the trend of Premier performances?

Saturday: 2.40 Kelso
bet365 Premier Chase (Listed) | 2m7½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

The Premier Chase is seemingly a progressive race. Performances north of 160 on the RPR scale have been rare but have been recorded by the first past the post in each of the last two runnings.

There must be a strong chance of the hat-trick being brought up as three of the seven runners this year have already crossed that threshold. Nuts Well, who must give weight away all round, consistently hits the low-160s. Itchy Feet's big performances have a bit of dust covering them, as both came in 2020, while Espoir De Romay's peak figure has been extrapolated from a non-completion.

The last of those is the most eyecatching piece of form in the race and why Espoir De Romay is favourite. It came in the Mildmay Novices' Chase in April and his fall at the second last came when holding a two-length lead over Chantry House. Whether he would have won is moot, the race had a slow finish and Espoir De Romay had done a lot of the spade work. What is stated with a degree of confidence is that he shaped like the best horse.

He did not run well at Carlisle in October on reappearance and has not been seen since. It is not the first time Espoir De Romay has missed engagements and it is inferred he is not easy to train.

The difficulty with Itchy Feet can be with the fences and putting it all in once he is asked. He has placed without winning on each of his last seven chase runs. Here he will race in blinkers for the first time, having been in cheekpieces of late, and is the sort of horse whose response to beefed-up headgear could be significant.

Windsor Avenue: bids to add the Premier Chase to his victory at Doncaster in JanuaryCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

The rest are high-class handicappers, with the emphasis on class. Windsor Avenue won the Sky Bet Chase in first-time blinkers in January, Dingo Dollar was second in the Scottish National and Hill Sixteen just failed in the Becher.

Big River won the Borders National and has a tremendous course record – 11 runs, eight wins, two seconds and brought down once – but has never been asked to beat graded-class horses off level weights here.

He might at least get the sort of tow into the race he needs. It is normally wise to assume there will not be a pace burn-up in what is, with the best will in the world, a trial race for most of the runners.

But there is plenty of pace. Espoir De Romay and Dingo Dollar have a history of leading, while the change to forceful tactics was credited by his trainer with bringing about Windsor Avenue's improved form at Doncaster.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'He's in a good place now'

Espoir De Romay kept rarified company as a novice in the shape of Royale Pagaille and Chantry House and Kim Bailey is hoping that, having been off since a third-placed run behind Fiddlerontheroof at Carlisle in October, this will act as a springboard for Grade 1 targets in the spring.

"He ran well enough at Carlisle and the form has worked out. He wasn't right afterwards and has taken a while to come back but he's in a good place now," said Bailey.

Kim Bailey: has shown plenty of patience with the exciting Espoir De RomayCredit: Edward Whitaker

Espoir De Romay was in the process of giving Chantry House quite a race when coming down two out in the Mildmay Novices' Chase last April and a return trip to Liverpool is the plan if all goes well here.

"He's been trained with the idea of going back to Aintree and I need to get a run into him beforehand," said Bailey. "I didn't want to go to Cheltenham where the only choice was to run him in the Gold Cup, which isn't a great way of starting a horse off having had one run this season. We decided this would be more suitable than the Grimthorpe at Doncaster."

What they say

Brian Ellison, trainer of Windsor Avenue
The form of his last win has worked out really well, with the third Cap Du Nord winning the big race at Kempton last Saturday. If he reproduces that sort of form in the blinkers again he'd take some beating. All being well, he'll go to Aintree for the Grand National after Kelso.

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Big River
He's got six pounds to find with three of them and a lot more with Kim Bailey's horse, but I think that the Kelso factor should help him. The softer the ground the better and he seems in great form. It is a big ask for him over a mile short of his optimum but he loves it round there and he's been a remarkable horse for us.

Big River: has a career record of eight wins and two seconds from 11 starts at KelsoCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Sandy Thomson, trainer of Dingo Dollar and Hill Sixteen
Dingo Dollar hasn't run because of this ridiculous way you have to protect your mark for the National. The ground will make it more of a staying contest, which will suit him. We'll take our chance and this is a race that is not unknown for turning up surprises. I was delighted with Hill Sixteen at Doncaster. He went there with the hope he might go up a few pounds and sneak into the National. This will be his ground and then he'll go to the Scottish National.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Itchy Feet
He's in good form and hasn't done a lot wrong since the Scilly Isles, bar he hasn't actually won a race. He schooled very well in blinkers this morning and hopefully in slow ground they will just bring out a bit more improvement. He deserves to win a good race and hopefully it might be Saturday.
Reporting by Scott Burton

Read a selection of Saturday previews . . .

1.50 Newbury: does Paul Nicholls have another likely type in bid for tenth Greatwood Gold Cup?

3.15 Kelso: Nicky Henderson warns 'Buveur D'Air will come on an awful lot for the run'

Big-race analysis: can Buveur D'Air defy top weight and raise the roof at Kelso? (Members' Club)

3.30 Meydan: 'I think he's a big player' – Godolphin trio take on Lord Glitters in Jebel Hatta

Join Racing Post Members' Club for just £9.99 for your first month!Members' Club is the only subscription racing fans and punters need in order to stay informed and make smarter betting decisions. Features include early access to the Racing Post digital newspaper, exclusive news and interviews, premium tips and form study tools to assist with betting. Head to our subscription page here, select 'Get Ultimate Monthly' and enter code CHELT22!