Can Auguste Rodin cope with heavy ground? Pointers for the Vertem Futurity

Saturday: 3.35 Doncaster
Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1) (No Geldings) | 1m | 2yo | ITV4/Sky

Sir Henry Cecil and Aidan O’Brien are locked together with ten wins each in the Vertem Futurity Trophy (3.35), but victory for Auguste Rodin in this year’s race can put O’Brien out on his own.

The Ballydoyle trainer’s winners have an equal split of profiles, with five scoring in maidens and five proven Group performers. This year, Auguste Rodin lines up after victory in a Group 2.

Saxon Warrior (2017) and Luxembourg (2021) were the last two O’Brien-trained winners who came into the race as Group 2 winners. However, they had won the Beresford Stakes en route and Auguste Rodin’s Group success came on Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown.

The races might hold the same Group status, but the Beresford is usually stronger than the Leopardstown event and we can see that by comparing Racing Post Ratings. Saxon Warrior got 112 for his Beresford win and Luxembourg 113, while Auguste Rodin has an RPR of just 110.

That's the same rating Epictetus achieved in finishing second in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket two weeks ago, although the Gosden performer is 2lb superior on official ratings. He was probably done only for a lack of experience behind Silver Knott and that was also his first run after 92 days off following his debut.

Epictetus, like Auguste Rodin, holds a Derby entry, but this race has been a better guide to the 2,000 Guineas in recent seasons. The last winner to go on and complete the double with the Derby was Camelot in 2011 and he won only a maiden before scoring in this.

This race threw up the winner of the Guineas for three years in a row, with Saxon Warrior (2017), Magna Grecia (2018) and Kameko (2019) all going on to be successful at Newmarket, while last year’s winner Luxembourg finished third in this season’s first Classic.

O’Brien trained Saxon Warrior and Magna Grecia, but Andrew Balding was responsible for Kameko and he also had Elm Park win this race in 2014. Balding saddles Stormbuster, who bolted up by five lengths in the historic Haynes, Hanson and Clark at Newbury last month.

That race has given us superstars like Henbit, Shergar, King’s Theatre, Nayef and, more recently, the Breeders’ Cup Turf hero Yibir. Stormbuster therefore has a lot to live up to.

He is bred to be good as his dam is Group 2 scorer Barshiba and he is a brother to Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen. If there is a fly in the ointment, it might be Stormbuster.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Last chance for O'Brien

It is now or never for Aidan O'Brien, who has one last chance to avoid his worst season in Britain's top races for ten years.

More often than not he is the man to beat in British Group 1 contests and he won no fewer than 16 of them in 2017, when he was crowned champion trainer on both sides of the Irish Sea.

That total has dwindled to just four this season, courtesy of Tuesday, Blackbeard and Kyprios (twice), matching his return from 2012.

But there is one left and Auguste Rodin is a red-hot favourite to land it for Ballydoyle, having looked a smart prospect in landing a maiden at Naas and a Group 2 event at Leopardstown on his last two outings.

Aidan O'Brien: will have high hopes for Auguste Rodin in the Vertem Futurity StakesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

O'Brien is wary of the testing ground conditions at Doncaster but said: "The plan at the moment is for Auguste Rodin to run. We always like to run if we can.

"It's obviously not ideal that so much rain has hit Doncaster and we were hoping for better ground as he is such a good-moving horse. But he's done well since Leopardstown and we think he's a classy colt."

The trainer also runs Navan maiden winner Salt Lake City and said: "He is a nice colt who won well at Navan on soft ground. We were delighted with him there and he seems to be progressing lovely."

What they say

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Captain Wierzba
We were supposed to find out what level he was at Saint-Cloud three weeks ago but we're going to find out now instead!

Roger Teal, trainer of Dancing Magic
He'll appreciate the soft ground. Jim Crowley said after Newmarket last time he was crying out for a bit of give. He doesn't have a lot to find with those in front of him there and if he runs his best race he could get among them.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Epictetus
They've had some rain up there but he is bred to go on soft, although I'll have a look at the ground when I get there. He ran well when second in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket when he learnt a lot. It was always the plan to give him two runs in the autumn and then put him away.

Karl Burke, trainer of Holloway Boy
The soft ground is a bit of an unknown, but he's out of a Pivotal mare and the lads who ride him at home think he'll handle it. He's very lazy and he wouldn't have blown a candle out after his last race at Newmarket, so we feel there's a little more in the locker. He's worked very well with a visor on, we think that will help him.

Dave Loughnane, trainer of King Of Steel
He's very exciting. It's a big step up from a novice to a Group 1 on just his second start, but visually he was very impressive at Nottingham, although we don't really know what he beat. It's a tall order but we'll roll the dice and see what happens.
Reporting by David Carr

Saturday previews:

2.05 Cheltenham: 'He was unlucky not to win last year' - who fancies their chances at Cheltenham?

2.40 Cheltenham: Pied Piper or Knight Salute: who will claim victory in a classic trilogy?

3.15 Cheltenham: Can course regular Editeur Du Gite notch yet another Cheltenham victory?

3.50 Cheltenham: Can Charles Byrnes and son strike another blow for the Irish with Shoot First?

Newbury: 'It looks like a race he can win' - Hamish out to give Haggas another St Simon

Leopardstown: Hippodrome looks main hope as Aidan O'Brien targets 12th Eyrefield Stakes

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