Came From The Dark 'in the form of his life' - but stats are all against him

2.25 Newmarket
Betfair Palace House Stakes (Group 3) | 5f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

The old adage says that there’s not that much between the top sprint handicaps and Group class sprints, but in recent years that hasn’t proven to have been the case in Group 3 events.

Since the start of 2011 there have been 110 horses run in Group 3 races over shorter than 6f in Britain and Ireland who had competed in a handicap on their latest start and only five of them won. That’s less than five per cent and a £1 bet on each yielded a loss of £87.50.

Three of the first four in the overnight market come into that category, including hot favourite Lazuli, who was beaten at odds-on in a handicap on his latest outing at Meydan in January.

There were excuses that day because Lazuli was headstrong on his return from a winter break and pulled his chance away. He is also a Group 3 winner, so it’s too soon to write him off.

Came From The Dark has yet to even compete in a Group race, but he had another of the market principals, Garrus, a neck behind when winning a 5f handicap at Newbury last time.

The pair achieved Racing Post Ratings of 110 and 113 respectively and since the start of 2019 all 20 horses who raced in Group 3 company over short of 6f after recording an RPR of lower than 114 in a handicap were beaten. That illustrates the task facing Came From The Dark and Garrus.

So exactly who are the proven class horses in this Group 3?

Judicial is a Group 3 winner who regularly competes in Group and Listed company, and his fifth in the Golden Rose at Lingfield last time is better than it looks on paper. He shouldered a 5lb penalty for his Group win and raced wide after losing his place due to early interference.

Judicial: possesses Group class and does not carry a penaltyCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

His best form is on turf and he doesn’t have to carry a penalty on his return to the surface.

Emaraaty Ana is another Group-race regular. He was beaten only a length by Summerghand and Oxted in the Group 3 Abernant over 6f at this track a couple of weeks ago, when he showed plenty of speed. The problem is all his best form has come over further than 5f.

Dubai Station is the other coming out of Group company. He was last seen finishing fifth behind Battaash in the King George at Goodwood and makes his debut for Robert Cowell. Sprint king Cowell is 10-79 (13 per cent) with runners having their first run for him after leaving another yard since the start of 2016, but a £1 bet on them lost a total of £21.50.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Lazuli likely to have more to offer at four

A 3lb penalty for winning a Newbury Group 3 last autumn makes life tougher, but the four-year-old Lazuli boasts plenty of scope for further improvement as a sprinter.

The son of Dubawi progressed throughout his three-year-old campaign and clocked a very quick time over 5f when beating Tis Marvellous by a length at the Berkshire venue.

In a race which is top-heavy with older, far more exposed sprinters, Lazuli looks to have been found a good opportunity to launch his latest campaign in winning style.

Lazuili: progressed throughout his three-year-old season last yearCredit: Pool

Trainer Charlie Appleby said: “Lazuli produced a nice performance out in Dubai when finishing third to Equilateral in the Dubai Dash and comes into this race fresh and well.

“He has a penalty for his win at Newbury, but I couldn’t be happier with his preparation.”

What they say

Robert Cowell, trainer of Aljady, Arecibo and Dubai Station
Aljady improved greatly last year and was up to Listed class by the end. He had a pipe-opener at Chelmsford, I was a bit disappointed he got beat, but six furlongs is not his gig any more. He’ll run a nice race down to five furlongs. Arecibo won first time out over the course and distance. He put the race to bed quickly, and Oisin [Murphy] said he felt fantastic. Maybe he’s got a renewed sense of life again? I bought Dubai Station last October, and he goes really well. Five furlongs is definitely his gig from what I’ve seen at home, but I’m a smidgeon concerned about the ground and the track.

Ed Walker, trainer of Came From The Dark
He’s a progressive sprinter and is finally beginning to realise his potential. Hollie [Doyle] gets a great tune out of him. He’ll have to improve again to keep ahead of Garrus but he’s in the form of his life.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Emaraaty Ana
He’s already run two good races this year and shown plenty of speed in both. The quicker the ground the better, and the fact that he enjoys racing downhill at Newmarket is a definite plus.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Garrus
He’s in great shape for this race. He came out of his Newbury run pretty well and has a good, solid chance.

Steve Brown, assistant to Julie Camacho, trainer of Judicial
We’re pleased with him. His preparation for this race has gone very well. He’s a nice, easy horse to get ready and we’ve followed a similar regime to previous years. He’s twice finished second in this race, and there’s been no indication from his work that he’s slowed down at all at the age of nine.

Christopher Mason, trainer of Glamorous Anna
She’s a very quick filly and deserves to take her place. Ideally she’d want the ground a little easier, but there aren’t many options for her at this time of year. The aim is to get some black type with her if we can. I think she’s a genuine 100-type filly and some of her form has worked out very well. You’ve got to give it a go in races like this as Mr Evans proved on Wednesday when Rohaan upset the big boys at Ascot. We’ll try and do the same.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read more Saturday previews:

3.00 Newmarket: substance over style sums up the Jockey Club Stakes protagonists

3.40 Newmarket: top trainers on the leading fancies for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas

3.40 Newmarket: read the form as well as the runes to unravel Ballydoyle's 2,000 Guineas hand (Members' Club)

Members can click here to download the digital newspaper every evening from 9pm. Not a member? Click here to sign up and enjoy the digital newspaper every day.