3.20 Ffos Las: can top novice Strong Leader give the weight away in Welsh Champion Hurdle?

As this is the first jumps fixture of the season at Ffos Las, the ground is fresh and the weather is mild. The hock-deep conditions that have become synonymous with the track do not crop up as much as you would think.

This is set to be just the third Welsh Champion Hurdle run in deep ground since the race moved to this slot in the calendar in the mid-2010s. If the rain continues it might be the first in that time to take place on heavy.

It is to be hoped conditions do not tarnish the race. The Welsh Champion Hurdle might be a handicap, but it has produced its share of graded-class performances and this year's field could well produce more.

Two of the top four on the card, Strong Leader and Nemean Lion, were smart novices last year. Strong Leader has the form edge, as he was second in the Grade 1 Top Novices' at Aintree, while Nemean Lion showed loads of form in deep ground, including when third in the Tolworth.

The other two high up in the weights are top handicappers. Gin Coco was miles clear with I Like To Move It in last year's Greatwood and tanked all over the winner only to be outbattled. As with the novices, Faivoir has a little to find on form but is a nap to handle conditions as he won the County Hurdle on rain-softened ground.

If you are a particularly ground-attuned punter, Carbon King is worth a look on his first run for Evan Williams. His standout efforts in Ireland came late in his time there, on soft and heavy ground. How ready he will be on his debut for Williams is, as ever, best judged by the betting. You would expect they will have tried to get him up to speed for a tilt at a £50,000 race.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Olly Murphy, trainer of Strong Leader
I'm really looking forward to running him. It's going to be tough under top weight but he's in very good form and he had an away day which hopefully should've blown away the cobwebs. He's the class form in the race off his novice form, albeit he'll have to give weight to a competitive field. I wouldn't swap him and if he gets into a rhythm hopefully he'll go very close. Ideally I wouldn't want it to go heavy for his first run of the season and with that much weight on his back but he'll handle soft ground fine and the big, galloping left-handed track will suit him well.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Faivoir
He's in good form and he'll love the ground. It's hyper-competitive but he's obviously got a chance and he runs well in these races. He hasn't got a stone in hand as he only just won the County Hurdle but he's consistent.

Kerry Lee, trainer of Nemean Lion
He's in great form, he's so fresh I've got to run him. The target is the Greatwood and I think it's unfair to put a young hurdler with limited experience over hurdles in that race first time, so with the rain I thought this was a great opportunity to make a start.

Harry Fry, trainer of Gin Coco
He's thankfully made a full recovery from the pelvic stress fracture injury he picked up when disappointing in the County Hurdle. He's in really good form and worked nicely at Salisbury last week and he's always gone well fresh.

Milton Harris, trainer of El Muchacho
He's a stuffy horse but he's been away to Kempton. I think it'll end up pretty bad ground there so while he's a two-and-a-half mile horse I suspect he'll be the one galloping on at the end of it.

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