Favourites for a reason: why Oisin Murphy is value for another jockeys' title
Watching Oisin Murphy's brilliant winning ride on Confrontational at Newcastle on Tuesday reminded me of a punting mantra I learned from colleague James Pyman shortly after joining the Racing Post in 2004: just because they're favourite, doesn't mean they're too short.
Admittedly Pyman never said those words to me; he might not even believe them himself. But it was the lesson I took from seeing him being prepared to tip Roger Federer at odds-on to win tennis tournaments.
Back then it would never have crossed my mind to back anyone at such short prices in fields of 64 or 128 players. But why not? Tiger Woods used to win week after week against even more rivals when he was in his pomp. There were nearly 200 cyclists in the Tour de France every year in the early 2000s, but none of them had a prayer of winning apart from Lance Armstrong.
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