Thinking of backing Luxembourg for the Derby? Here's why you should think again

As the Flat turf prepares to hibernate for another year, the winter Classic narrative has been set after Luxembourg’s Vertem Futurity victory strengthened his position at the head of the ante-post market for next year’s Derby.

Those smart enough to get on at 25-1 before his Beresford triumph must be feeling rather smug, but if you're considering investing at the current 4-1 (let alone the pitiful 5-2 on offer with William Hill) I'd suggest you think again given the recent record of Derby favourites at this stage of the year.

On the plus side for Luxembourg, his sire Camelot was one winter favourite who went on to do the business at Epsom, as did Australia in 2014. But even accounting for those victories, the pair's odds of 3-1 and 5-1 at the end of their two-year-old campaigns mean you would still not be showing a level-stakes profit if you had backed the winter Derby favourite for the last decade.