33-1 shot can spring Welsh National surprise - plus a 20-1 ante-post fancy

Eva's Oskar
2.50 Chepstow, Monday
1pt each-way at 33-1

Empire Steel
2.10 Wetherby, Sunday
1pt win at 7-1

I thought my Welsh Grand National fancy had no chance of getting in with Native River confirmed for the Chepstow showpiece, but when the weights were released on Tuesday I was given a glimmer of hope.

With Ask Me Early, Time To Get Up and Royale Pagaille all out of the race, plenty from lower down the weights could now get the chance to run, including my selection.

Eva's Oskar needs a few to come out but the beauty is if he's balloted out you'll get your money back.

The seven-year-old has won three of his five starts at the track – his two losses were in a bumper and a novice hurdle in which he was sent off 150-1 – and has plenty of experience after seven runs over fences.

He stayed on strongly to win over 2m7½f on his reappearance, beating subsequent winners Jeremy Pass and Pats Fancy. He was then outpaced a long way out at Ascot but kept at it to finish just a length and a half behind Kapga De Lily, who has also won again since.

Eva's Oskar went head-to-head with Corach Rambler last time at Cheltenham, where the more galloping track appeared to suit, and despite hitting the second-last and being carried across the track, he again rallied admirably.

Corach Rambler has since gone up 8lb and could still be ahead of his mark, so although Eva's Oskar is 5lb wrong on his future mark (135), I think he's worth chancing considering he's 33-1 and shapes as if he'll improve for this step up in trip.

The Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (2.10) at Wetherby on Sunday could be a cracking running, with last year's winner Canelo and Ladbrokes Trophy hero Cloudy Glen engaged.

Along with Mighty Thunder, Top Ville Ben and Lord Du Mesnil, Cloudy Glen now holds a rating of 150, which helps make the race for my selection.

Empire Steel is a difficult horse to assess because he has had only seven starts in Britain, five of which have come over fences.

I'm not for one moment going to suggest you can take his 41-length beating of Protektorat in February, when he recorded a Racing Post Rating of 152, at face value, but nevertheless he is a relentless galloper with unlocked potential in handicaps.

The fact Sandy Thomson permitted him to run in a Grade 1 at Aintree indicates he must think a lot of him and he was actually running a bright race until he hit the eighth fence.

Empire Steel: beat Protektorat by 41 lengths at Kelso in FebruaryCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

He recorded an RPR (146) that belies his current rating (141) on his reappearance at Haydock, where he came up against the race-fit, remarkable improver Strictlyadancer, who he gave 21lb plus Jack Tudor's 3lb claim.

Still only a seven-year-old, he is bound to have improved for that and this race should play to his strengths given it takes place on a flat, left-handed track.

Plenty of rain is forecast for Wetherby in the coming days, which will suit him (record on soft ground is 111), he doesn't have any alternative entries and Ryan Mania is already booked to ride, so it's safe to anticipate a very good run.

Stayers' price stands out for Appreciate It

Appreciate It
Stayers' Hurdle, March 17
1pt win at 20-1 with Unibet

It was revealed on Tuesday that last year's Supreme winner Appreciate It will remain over hurdles this season after suffering a setback.

He is the 7-1 second favourite for the Champion Hurdle but I think it will be mission impossible for him to give Honeysuckle 7lb, particularly when he seemed to lack a gear or two at various junctures last season.

He won a 3m point-to-point and a 2m4f bumper and I wouldn't be surprised if Willie Mullins decides to run him in the Stayers' Hurdle.

Klassical Dream is Closutton's current number one but he reminds me of Penhill given how fragile he is, and at the time of writing he's a 9-2 chance, while Appreciate It can be backed at 20-1 with Unibet.

Mullins is known for changing plans to go for more winnable races and the staying division lacks depth, so taking that price is a no-brainer to me.

Will Senor go for gold?

I can't wait for the Kauto Star Novices' Chase on Boxing Day when Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor will face off.

I've been seriously impressed by both so far in their first seasons over fences. The former is arguably a more fluent jumper but I think the latter could trump him on latent ability.

With that in mind, what I'm about to say might sound foolish but I think there is a real possibility the Ahoy Senor team might go for the Gold Cup in 2022 rather than the Festival Novices' Chase.

Firstly, connections didn't think anything of running him in a Grade 1 after just one start over hurdles (he repaid their confidence handsomely in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle at Aintree) and he made his chasing debut against his elders in the Colin Parker at Carlisle.

Despite the fact he unseated Derek Fox there, he was plunged into Grade 2 company on just his second start over fences at Newbury, where he annihilated the field.

Coneygree obliterated the Kauto Star field in 2014 before going on to Gold Cup success and if Ahoy Senor defeats Bravemansgame in style it could become a tempting proposition, particularly considering he could take in the Denman Chase (like Coneygree did) at a track we know he adores, en route to Cheltenham.

Ahoy Senor: should go for gold at the Cheltenham Festival if winning at KemptonCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Indeed, if you can't tell already, Ahoy Senor reminds me a lot of Coneygree, being a relentless galloper with a high cruising speed.

Credible British Gold Cup contenders are thin on the ground with the likes of Clan Des Obeaux and Frodon seemingly destined for other things, while Royale Pagaille and Fiddlerontheroof still have plenty to prove.

Ahoy Senor was given an RPR of 161 at Newbury, which already puts him ahead of where Coneygree was at this stage seven years ago and within touching distance of Gold Cup third favourite Chantry House.

It's a big if, but if he downs Bravemansgame I'd expect connections to give it serious thought. If his jumping holds up at Kempton (naturally, it should improve) I'd encourage them to roll the dice.

Our sport has been known to reward brave campaigning and it's the sort of narrative that would not only add so much more lustre to the Gold Cup but light up the season as a whole.

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