Murphy v Buick: who has the advantage as the championship reaches a climax?

With two days to go in the battle for the British Flat jockeys' championship, what have Oisin Murphy and William Buick got left in terms of winning chances and where might the race be won and lost?

Oisin Murphy remains two clear of William Buick with two days to go

Numbers game

Buick has kept up the pressure relentlessly this week with agent Tony Hind leaving him behind in the weighing room on very few occasions.

He has three more rides than Murphy at Haydock on Friday – Buick has two rides before Murphy gets into action – and five to the reigning champion's four at Ascot on Saturday, making a total of 13 mounts over the final two cards compared to his rival's nine.

Agent Tony Hind has left no stone unturned in his efforts to get William Buick over the lineCredit: Edward Whitaker

It is a pattern that reflects what has been happening day in, day out during the run-in, with Buick riding 83 times to Murphy;s 69 in the last fortnight.

Advantage Buick

Friday fancies

As is often the way in Britain, the quality and therefore the competitiveness rises at the end of the week and winners will be hard earned in the last 48 hours of the title race.

On Friday's card at Haydock, Buick has solid chances with Suanni (1.15), Noteable (1.45), Mythical Dancer (2.55) and Dukedom (4.40).

Murphy's reason for heading to Haydock is explained by strong chances with Magisterial (3.30) and Whitehaven in the last (5.10), a winnable handicap over two miles.

Despite his numerical inferiority . . . advantage Murphy

Saturday is decision day

Neither jockey will need any extra motivation given the prestige and value of the races on Champions Day, and both will be riding one of their key Group 1 allies in huge races.

There can be little doubt that if there was one horse Buick would want to be riding with Britain's richest race and potentially still the title on the line, it would be Adayar.

Even off the back of a fourth-placed finish in the Arc, Buick retains enormous faith in the Derby and King George winner.

Oisin Murphy: champion will be delighted Alcohol Free features among his Saturday ridesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Murphy has a strong chance with Dragon Symbol in the Sprint but surely he will feel his trump card comes in the QEII with Alcohol Free, who is already a Group 1 heroine on Ascot's round course and a brilliant winner of the Sussex Stakes on her last start at a mile.

Both races feature red-hot opposition but these are the ones they really want to win, and if either were to deliver the coup de grace in the jockeys' championship, you can expect a huge outpouring of emotion.

No advantage

Does either have a joker left to play?

So much of the championship climax has been about converting the obvious winning chances. By way of illustration, Murphy's longest-priced winner in the last fortnight went off at 17-2, while nine of Buick's 17 winners in the same period were clear favourite.

But if things get really tight, is there something at a bigger price that could tip the balance in an unexpected way?

Murphy has never ridden Beyond Equal (2.20) for Stuart Kittow, but in the context of Friday's Class 3 handicap he wasn't beaten far by Hurricane Ivor in the Portland at Doncaster, while he has winning form at Haydock.

It will be tough for Buick if he still needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat in the final counting race, the Balmoral Handicap, but Matthew Flinders has always threatened to have one of these valuable Saturday pots within his scope, while trainer Ed Walker might feel a change of luck is in order after the small setback that ended Starman's interest in Champions Day.

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