Keith Melrose is happy to look beyond the market leaders in the Pavilion Stakes

3.55 Newcastle
Betway Pavilion Stakes (Group 3) | 6f, 3yo | Sky

At Ascot the Pavilion Stakes has been one of the best breeding grounds for high-quality sprinters in recent years. It owes that position primarily to its upgrade to Group 3 status in 2015 and the creation of the Commonwealth Cup the same year.

It is now one of the main trials for the Commonwealth Cup, although with the proximity of that race this year (the Pavilion is normally run in early May) it does not seem to apply as strongly.

A'Ali is the one runner who could legitimately be called a Commonwealth Cup contender, and he can be backed at 16-1 for his presumed Royal Ascot target. He won the Norfolk, Prix Robert Papin and Flying Childers in 2019, and the perception seems to be that he was a bit too precocious for comfort. Will he train on or, just as pertinently, will he cope with Newcastle's stiff 6f?

The favourite is Malotru, who is not on Commonwealth Cup lists at all. He struggled to cut it in the Gimcrack and Mill Reef after winning a Group 3 in Italy, but stepped up when landing a Listed race at Lingfield in February over 7f. The question for him is also over trip, but the other way. He might need further.

There are a couple worth mentioning who did not get to show their full worth at two. As it happens, they were placed behind A'Ali in the Norfolk. Ventura Rebel was seen as a good thing for the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury next time, but finished fourth and has not been out in the meantime. Dubai Station went to Deauville, when he could not lay a glove on Earthlight, before finishing lame in the Gimcrack and then flopping on heavy ground at Redcar. He is arguably more interesting than odds of 25-1 imply.

What the stats say?

Four of the last five favourites in this race have been successful, with Limato (2015), Blue Point (2017), Invincible Army (2018) and Calyx (2019) obliging at Ascot.

Blue Point: used this race as a springboard in 2017Credit: Edward Whitaker

With Frankie Dettori riding at Newmarket, Silvestre de Sousa gets the call-up on A'Ali. In the last five years De Sousa has a 27 per cent strike-rate when riding for Simon Crisford, whose training licence recently changed to a co-trainer with Ed Crisford.

It is worth watching Marco Botti-trained three-year-olds at Newcastle. He has a 21 per cent strike-rate and profit of +13.55 from a £1 stake.

What the trainers say?

Simon Crisford, co-trainer of A'Ali
He was a model of consistency in Group 2 races last season, although things didn't pan out for him in the Breeders' Cup. He's doing really well. We were keen to get a prep run into him before the Commonwealth Cup – which is his big early target – and we're anxious to find out whether this trip will play to his strengths. The horse has had a very good winter and spring and we're extremely happy with his preparation leading up to this. It's his first time on the all-weather but he's always worked well on it at home so I don't see why that would be an issue.

James Tate, trainer of Dream Shot
He was a bit of a surprise package last season. He was a cheap purchase and improved all season and was a cracking second in the Flying Childers. He's surprised us again over the winter as he's grown and developed and is working really well. He's a quirky horse so there's a possibility he'll do something strange and he'll need to prove himself at six furlongs. But we're really looking forward to running him.

Dream Shot (white and red silks): won at Goodwood and Chelmsford last seasonCredit: Edward Whitaker

Karl Burke, trainer of Dubai Station and Gravity Force
They both go there in good form. Gravity Force has form on the track and was second there on his last run. He likes the track but six furlongs might be on the sharp side. It's riding slow and I think he'll enjoy that so I think he could run a big race. I think Dubai Station is a high-class horse and he's done really well through the winter. He's had a few physical problems but we've ironed them out towards the end of last year – we're really happy with him. He was good last year, third at Royal Ascot, and hopefully it'll be onwards and upwards after this race.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Fleeting Prince
I've been pleased with the way he's been training up to now. He's a little bit to find on the ratings but he's working like a nice horse. I think he can run a big race.

Marco Botti, trainer of Malotru
The horse is in good form. We did plan to run in the German Guineas but we had to have a rethink. It wasn't our original plan to drop him to six [furlongs] but he's not short of speed. I don't think it'll be a problem. He's already won this year so hopefully that'll be in our advantage.

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