'It could get very deep' - Longchamp braced for wet night with ground testing

Longchamp officials will spend a nervous night before their biggest day as rain sweeps across Paris, with forecasts presenting two very different scenarios for the ground that will greet the runners on Arc day.

"There's a lot of uncertainty with one forecast predicting 15mm of rain tonight and another 40mm," said France Galop director of racecourses, Matthieu Vincent. "The one piece of luck we might get is that the depression that is bringing the rain has a lot of wind and that could push it to one side of us or at least mean that it moves through quite quickly."

While the official penetrometer reading on Saturday was 3.9 or very soft, Vincent said the fresh strip of ground in use tomorrow was 3.6 (soft).

"If we got no more than 20mm tonight then we could be at 4.0 or thereabouts," said Vincent. "But once you get over 20mm, it could get very deep."

The more optimistic end of that scenario provide similar conditions to when Waldgeist defeated Enable in 2019 (4.1 on the penetrometer), while if the rain really gets into the ground in torrential amounts, Longchamp could resemble the heavy ground on which Sottsass triumphed 12 months ago (4.6).

Vincent is also hoping that the rain will finish as early as possible, giving the turf a chance to drain a little. The closer to racing, the worse conditions will be.

Six metres of fresh turf has been preserved all the way round with no racing and a lot of intensive treatment since July 14. That width grows to 12 metres in the straight, including a six-metre cutaway rail to allow runners in behind to launch their challenge.

Longchamp's Sunday card

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Longchamp dark horses: four runners who could be overpriced on Arc weekend

Who will win the 2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?

2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tips: why this horse can win Sunday's big race

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