'Greater parity' in success rates of British and Irish hurdlers after review

The rate at which British and Irish-trained horses win handicaps over hurdles and fences at British meetings has almost converged, with the BHA's head of handicapping declaring "the aim to achieve a greater degree of parity has largely been achieved."

The handicapping review project sprung from a desire on the part of the BHA to examine the upward drift of handicap marks in Britain over more than a decade, and was inaugurated in the wake of Irish dominance at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

Since the beginning of the review in September 2021, the so-called win impact values over hurdles for British-trained horses in handicaps of Class 4 and above – that is the rates at which a category of horse wins a race compared to its theoretical chances of doing so – has risen from 0.91 to 0.97 (where 1.00 is the desired equilibrium); the impact value for Irish-trained hurdlers running in Britain has declined from 1.46 before the BHA changed its methodology to 1.11.

In layman's terms, Irish hurdlers are still outperforming their statistical likelihood of winning a British handicap, but at a much reduced rate.

Much less of a discrepancy existed over fences but it is now British chasers that are outperforming expectations, with an impact value of 1.03 (up from 0.98), while Irish-trained horses have fallen from 1.09 to 0.91 when venturing over to contest handicap chases in Britain.

Credit: Data from BHA

Another key finding from the latest BHA analysis is that the opening mark for novice hurdlers is now almost 7lb lower than before the current review of the system started.

British trainers won just five of the 28 races at the festival in March 2021 and the score in handicaps was 7-2 to the visitors, while the next month ten of the first 11 finishers in the Grand National came from Ireland.

While the BHA's rationale was to provide what head of handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill describes as "a better day-to-day product," there was also a clear determination to examine whether there was a link between the way the British jumps population was rated and its performance at the major spring festivals when there was significant competition from Irish trainers.

Among the key tools the handicapping team set out to employ was a readiness to drop losing or exposed horses more quickly, a more conservative approach to giving opening marks to novice hurdlers and a change to the way winning and placed horses were reassessed post-race.

Gardiner-Hill gave an update before this year’s Cheltenham Festival, in which he described "an ongoing, organic process."

Dominic Gardiner-Hill: 'The aim to achieve a greater degree of parity has largely been achieved'Credit: British Horseracing Authority

He added that, in the event of another Irish sweep of the handicaps, "I don't want anyone to be able to say to us, 'You lazy buggers, you got battered last year, you swept it under the carpet and did nothing'."

While Ireland once again dominated overall at Cheltenham in 2022, the story was much more balanced in the handicap ranks, with British trainers winning five of the nine prizes.

In the latest update Gardiner-Hill does not specifically address that performance but instead concentrates on the profile of the overall population, in addition to examining the changes brought about by the revised methodology.

The data compares the four completed jumps seasons from 2017-18 to 2020-21 against all races run from the start of 2021-22 to October 31 this year.

Overall there has been a two per cent increase in the number of horses who have had their mark dropped.

Gardiner-Hill said: "The most striking feature is the fact that fewer runners are being left unchanged both over hurdles [1.4 per cent less] and fences [2.9 per cent less] after a run in a handicap.

The BHA handicapping team has dropped the average starting mark for novice hurdlers by almost 7lb during their reviewCredit: Alan Crowhurst

"The hurdle file shows an increased number of horses being dropped by 1, 2, 3 and 4lb, and whilst the chase file isn't quite so consistent in that area, it is likely the small field sizes during the summer impacted that area and hopefully increased numbers during the winter months will see more future movement."

Of the changes to the average rise or fall in rating for horses who finished in the first four, Gardiner-Hill pointed out winners are being raised on average by 0.8lb less than pre-review, with rises for runners-up down by 0.62lb and a corresponding increase in the average drop for finishing third and fourth of 0.34lb and 0.25lb.

And the average opening handicap mark for novice hurdlers has fallen from a rating of 107.74 to 100.95.

"It's clear to see that the aim to start certain areas of the novice hurdle cohort on lower opening marks has been met," said Gardiner-Hill.

But it is undoubtedly the data on impact values between British and Irish-trained handicappers that will attract the most interest.

Gardiner-Hill said: "I have stressed from the beginning of this process that the aim was never to be anti-Irish – there were problems that existed in the jumps files that needed addressing to improve our day-to-day product.

"One of the potential by-products of the review was to give a more balanced look to the comparative performances of British and Irish trained horses in handicaps in which both countries had runners, particularly over hurdles.

"The aim to achieve a greater degree of parity has largely been met."

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