Punters' pal or foe: assessing the best and worst races for festival favourites

Many punters will be hoping the big-race favourites oblige at the Cheltenham Festival next month. We have looked at the ten-year trends for the market leaders and pinpointed the best and worst races for favourite backers . . .

Punters’ pals

Mares’ Novices' Hurdle

The Dawn Run Mares’ Novices' Hurdle was inaugurated four years ago and its record for favourites is outstanding. Willie Mullins has landed all four runnings, with the first three going to favourites Limini (8-11), Let’s Dance (11-8) and Laurina (4-7).

Last year’s market leader Epatante, who heads the betting for next month’s Champion Hurdle, failed to fire when ninth in this Grade 2 contest as Eglantine Du Seuil won at 50-1.

This year’s favourite

Minella Melody is a clear favourite at 11-4 but she has a couple of question marks to overcome. The Henry de Bromhead-trained six-year-old is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles but has not won over shorter than 2m2f and is unraced on ground better than yielding.

Star rating *

Racing Post Arkle

Six favourites have been successful in the Arkle since 2010 with Sprinter Sacre, Douvan and Altior among the winning market leaders. Western Warhorse was a surprise winner at 33-1 in 2014 and is the only double-figure odds winner in the last decade.

Sprinter Sacre: won the Arkle as the 8-11 favourite in 2012Credit: Michael Steele (Getty Images)

Duc Des Genievres was third in the betting at 5-1 when winning last year, with 100-30 favourite Hardline never threatening in seventh.

This year’s favourite

Gigginstown House Stud are likely to have another favourite this year in the Henry de Bromhead-trained Notebook. He is unbeaten in four runs over fences, winning in top-level company on his last two starts, but was well beaten on his previous visit to Cheltenham last year in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle. His best form is on easy ground.

Star rating ***

Close Brothers Hurdle

It is the same story as the Arkle for the Close Brothers Hurdle, registered as the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, with six winning favourites in the last decade.

That is largely down to Willie Mullins' wondermare Quevega, who justified favouritism in consecutive years between 2010 and 2014. The Mullins-trained Vroum Vroum Mag was the other successful favourite at 4-6 in 2016.

Last year’s 10-1 winner Roksana, who benefited from the final-flight fall of odds-on shot Benie Des Dieux, was the sole winner at double-figure odds in the past decade.

Quevega: very popular with favourite backersCredit: Richard Heathcote

This year’s favourite

There is uncertainty over Benie Des Dieux’s participation in this race but she is a more than worthy market leader on form. The star mare is also entered in the Stayers’ Hurdle and connections have mooted the possibility of running her in the Champion Hurdle, but she would take all the beating in this event, which she won two years ago, and impressed with victory in the John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park on her return.

Star rating ****

Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle

Multiple scorer Big Buck’s, Thistlecrack and last year’s hero Paisley Park are among the five winners to justify favouritism since 2010.

While the last two-named stayers have scored in the past five years, the other three renewals were won at double-figure odds by Cole Harden (14-1) in 2015, Nichols Canyon (10-1) in 2017 and Penhill (12-1) in 2018.

This year’s favourite

Negatives are hard to find about Paisley Park, who bids for back-to-back wins. Emma Lavelle’s stable star has dominated the division since last season and has been a comfortable winner of the Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in the lead-up.

Star rating *****

Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase

No festival handicap has returned more than two successful favourites in the past decade but this 2m4f event fares best on returning the lowest average SP for the winner since 2010 at 9.5 on decimal odds.

A Plus Tard was a winning favourite at 5-1 last year, as was the well-backed market leader Hunt Ball at 13-2 in 2012, while 2013 winner Rajdhani Express returned the biggest price at 16-1.

A Plus Tard: a successful favourite last yearCredit: Michael Steele

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle has the second best record of the handicaps in the past decade, returning an average SP of 11.5.

This year’s favourite

Imperial Aura heads the ante-post market at a best-priced 7-1 after his encouraging second to Simply The Betts at the track on Trials day and looks a good prospect.

Star rating ****

Primed for a blowout

Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Punters should tread with caution in the opening race of the festival as just two favourites have landed the Supreme since 2010.

Dunguib, Cue Card and My Tent Or Yours were among the beaten favourites in the past decade with Douvan the last horse to get the meeting off to the best start for favourite backers in 2015.

This year’s favourite

Shishkin heads the betting at 5-2 after wins at Newbury and Huntingdon but is taking a big leap in grade. The Supreme has an open feel with Abacadabras, Asterion Forlonge and Fiddlerontheroof other leading contenders.

Star rating **

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

The last six winners of this 3m event have been double-figure prices, including 33-1 scorers Very Wood and Kilbricken Storm and last year’s 50-1 outsider Minella Indo.

Subsequent Gold Cup hero Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross were the two winning favourites in the past decade.

Thyme Hill: market leader at 5-1 for the Albert Bartlett Novice HurdleCredit: Alan Crowhurst / Getty Images

This year’s favourite

Thyme Hill boasts an unbeaten record over hurdles, most recently winning the Betway Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury, but the 5-1 shot is not certain to contest this race as he is also entered in the Ballymore. Irish contenders Latest Exhibition and Monkfish are next in the betting.

Star rating ***

Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle

One of the toughest puzzles to solve across the four days, as favourite backers have found to their cost.

No market leader has been successful in the past ten years with 4-1 joint-favourite Desert Quest the last to strike in 2006. Dan Skelton has won three of the last four renewals and Superb Story (8-1) and Ch’tibello (12-1) were near the head of the betting.

This year’s favourite

The ante-post picture remains rather murky and the betting is headed by Ciel De Neige at a best-priced 10-1 with Coral. He was a somewhat unlucky second in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury this month and his trainer Willie Mullins has won this race four times since 2010.

Star rating **

Coral Cup

It’s the same story for the Coral Cup, in which no favourite has triumphed in the last decade.

Cheltenham Festival entries

William Henry landed the 2m5f handicap hurdle at 28-1 last year and you have to go back to 2004 and 4-1 chance Xenophon to find the last successful favourite.

This year’s favourite

Protektorat looks to have solid claims at 10-1. The Dan Skelton-trained five-year-old has settled much better this season and continues to improve. He was reinstated as winner of a Listed novice hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and then ran well at the track when third under a penalty in a Ballymore trial.

Star rating ***

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

The Grand Annual is not a punter-friendly race with a ten-year average SP of 22.3 at decimal odds, although that is skewed by last year’s surprise winner Croco Boy at 66-1.

The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is barely any better with an average decimal SP of 21.2, with 2010 winner Sanctuaire and last year’s scorer Band Of Outlaws the only successful favourites in the past decade.

Three 33-1 shots and a 40-1 outsider have also won in the same period.

This year’s favourite

The Gordon Elliott-trained Aramax is a clear market leader at a standout 11-2 with bet365 and William Hill for a race that has gone to Irish raiders in the last two years. Elliott, who struck with Veneer Of Charm in 2018, has brought Aramax along steadily, winning nicely at Naas last time.

Star rating ***

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