Ireland's fate at Cheltenham Festival rests in the hands of a trusted few

If the trend of recent years is maintained Irish trainers will exert a profound influence on next week's festival. Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott lead the charge following their aggregate 12-winner contribution to last season's record-breaking 19-winner haul.

A fundamental shift in the balance of power between British and Irish jump racing has taken place. In each of the past seven years, bar 2012 when Nicky Henderson saddled seven winners and Mullins supplied three wins from a modest Irish total of five, the Irish raiding party has compiled a double-figure score. Prior to 2011 this was achieved only once, in 2006, the second year in which the meeting was held in its present four-day format.

So why is the home defence more vulnerable than in former times? The answer is to be found within a paradox that has become a major issue in Ireland.