Keith Melrose on the Ten To Follow strategy needed to be in with a chance

Although the fundamentals of any bet you will ever have are the same – identify which horse will win (or place) – a large rump of Tote bets come with their own unique slants. With the Placepot, it is the aggressive tendency to find favourites who will be beaten. When you enterthe Tote Ten To Follow it is to farm the bonus races.

Last year, the reintroduced Ten To Follow had 15 bonus races, only 11 of which actually took place. This year, a full season willing, there will be 25.

The number is hugely significant, of course, but almost as important is the balance. Last year’s list of bonus races was weighted heavily towards staying chases: eight, a narrow majority, fell into that category.

The ten races added for the 2020-21 season more or less maintain the equilibrium, if we are to regard that as simply staying chasers versus the rest. The Betfair Chase, Savills Chase, Irish Gold Cup, Aintree Bowl and Irish Grand National make up half of the new races. These should alter players’ thinking, mainly to be somewhat more Ireland-centric.

You can enter the £150,000 Tote Ten To Follow here

Also notable is the inclusion of two big two-mile handicap hurdles, the Betfair Hurdle and County Hurdle. The former, in particular, invites giving consideration to novice hurdlers, a group that could be basically ignored last season.

Also new to the roster of bonus races are the Tingle Creek, Melling Chase and Liverpool Hurdle. Two in 25 is only a little better than one in 15, so there is no need to give any more than one spot to staying hurdlers – and, as last season showed us with 50-1 Stayers’ Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar, it is a division of above-average flux anyway.

It was the case in 2019/20 that players could feel confident in filling their ten with long-distance handicap chasers and aim to restock with spring types in the transfer window. That opportunity does not exist to the same extent this winter, although staying handicap chases still offer the biggest opportunities of any division, for bonus races and in general.

Al Boum Photo: the predictable preparation of the Gold Cup winner for Cheltenham should be a help to Ten To Follow playersCredit: Jonathan Grossick

Veering towards those staying handicappers who may become sufficiently highly rated to earn promotion to Grade 1 is a nice idea in principle, but in practice it is more likely to restrict options and leave you looking at the wrong types for bonus races. You do not find a Native River every year.

The fanning out of opportunities among the Grade 1 stayers does at least take the emphasis off finding the Gold Cup winner. That is especially pertinent given Al Boum Photo’s campaign is now established. One appearance before Cheltenham, in the shadows on New Year’s Day at Tramore, is particularly Ten To Follow-friendly. Remember also that Punchestown’s festival is outside the game period.

Indeed, given the Gold Cup is such a standout event relative to the Betfair Chase, King George, Aintree Bowl, Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup, it may be worth largely ignoring. The likes of Delta Work, demonstrably potent in these pre-Cheltenham events, could easily prove more lucrative than Al Boum Photo, Santini or any others who are either a bit more reliant on a stamina test, or likely to be saved for the last day of the festival.

The addition of the Tingle Creek and Melling Chase doubles the effective options for Grade 1 chasers over shorter distances. Last year, the Queen Mother and Ryanair made for a narrow target. Trying to find the best two-mile chaser, at least in Britain given the big pre-Cheltenham prizes in Ireland do not count for bonus points, could be well worth at least one of your spots in 2020-21. However, similarly to the staying handicapper caveat above, the right answer is not necessarily to cover the percentages with a two-miler who might stay further – it is to find winners.

It is also imperative, even at this stage, to bear in mind the transfer window. That proved crucial last season, when the winning team of Richard Hutchinson replaced Klassical Dream and Buveur D’Air with Epatante and Min.

Of course, events will decide which horses should be swapped in or out come March 10, when the window opens just before Cheltenham. While spring 2021 will hopefully be quite different to spring 2020, it might well be overthinking to assume that at this stage you will get to add a Grand National horse, with Ayr, Fairyhouse and Sandown also available.

Remember that finding a horse to do the Cheltenham-Aintree double is likely to be easier, and that Aintree has an extra three bonus races this season. With the contest formerly the RSA also a bonus race it might be worthwhile putting a strong three-mile novice chaser in at the start and dedicating your transfers to jostle for the all-important spring Grade 1s.

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