'He's the one to beat' - Paul Kealy has a strong fancy for the Stayers' Hurdle

The Racing Post Cheltenham Festival Guide 2022 (available to buy here for £12.99) is brought to you by the best team in the business, with the 208-page book featuring the lowdown on the top trainers, the key trends, build-up races to note, exclusive Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed figures and a Q&A with leading bookmakers. Top tipster Paul Kealy also provides his race-by-race guide with profiles of more than 100 leading contenders - below is an abridged version of his guide to the Stayers' Hurdle.

7 b g; Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Hurdles form: 780714162132111PF2, best RPR 169
Left-handed: 162111F2, best RPR 169
Right-handed: 780741132P, best RPR 147
Cheltenham form: 1, best RPR 168
Stormed through the ranks last season, causing a minor upset in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown and proving that was no fluke in this race as he again made the running and stayed on too strongly to win by three and a quarter lengths from Sire Du Berlais, who had won the Pertemps Final on the card for the previous two years. Flooring Porter was probably feeling the effects of that when pulled up behind a resurgent Klassical Dream in the Punchestown version (hung badly to his left), but the signs are he is just as good this season following two runs, albeit he hasn't won either. He looked to be going best when falling two out in the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan and was then beaten just two lengths by Klassical Dream in an unsatisfactory Christmas Hurdle in which the winner anticipated the start and stole six lengths. Flooring Porter was the only one who could go with him and pulled 21 lengths clear of the third. The jury is out as to whether he would have won with a fairer start but, with the winner flopping next time, he has assumed the mantle of favourite.
Going preference Seems to handle any ground
Star rating *****

Champ
10 b g; Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Hurdles form: 211112112, best RPR 165
Left-handed: 111212, best RPR 159
Right-handed: 211, best RPR 165
Cheltenham form (all): 2F1P2, best RPR 170
Reverted to hurdles this season after always appearing to find fences getting in his way and quickly served notice he should be taken seriously when finishing strongly to beat Thyme Hill by a length and three-quarters in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. However, he somehow managed to get beaten by three and a quarter lengths by Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle last time despite the winner trying to plant himself at the start and losing 15 lengths. His trainer was not unduly concerned and expects to have him in better shape on the day, but anyone considering a bet on him has to worry about the stats with older horses in 3m-plus Grade 1s at the festival. The only horse to win the Stayers' Hurdle aged older than nine in modern times was the 11-year-old Crimson Embers, a former winner in 1986. Champ certainly has the ability to be a factor, but you would expect a younger set of legs to be stronger on the run-in.
Going preference Handles any ground
Star rating ***

Paisley Park (far side) runs down Champ in the Cleeve HurdleCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

8 b g; Trainer: Willie Mullins
Hurdles form: P324P111135114, best RPR 171
Left-handed: 324P11151, best RPR 171
Right-handed: P1314, best RPR 171
Cheltenham form: 1, best RPR 160
Looked set for stardom after a novice season which included three Grade 1 successes in 2019 but was barely sighted until April last year when stepped up to 3m for the Champion Stayers’ Hurdle at Punchestown, proving strong in the market (9-1 to 5-1) and hacking up by nine lengths. It was some comeback and his winning RPR of 171 made it the best performance by any hurdler that season. Klassical Dream returned in similar vein in December when anticipating the start and this time making all for a two-length win in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, making him the obvious favourite for this even if he'd stolen a march on the field. However, then came the Galmoy, in which he dropped out to finish an 11-and-a-half-length fourth to Royal Kahala at 1-3. It was certainly a surprise result, but his trainer will have had plenty of time to get him right again and on the form of his two previous wins he arguably remains the one to beat. His Punchestown success shows he doesn’t need to make the running and perhaps a return to more patient tactics will suit in a race sure to be run at a strong gallop.
Going preference No ground issues
Star rating ****

8 b g; Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Hurdles form: 111412152, best RPR 163
Left-handed: 1114115, best RPR 162
Right-handed: 22, best RPR 163
Cheltenham form (all): 2314, best RPR 152
Has run really well at two festivals, finishing a close third to Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper and an even closer fourth to Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett after not getting the best of runs before the last. He beat Paisley Park by a length and a half in receipt of 3lb in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on his return in 2020 and ran pretty much to an identical level when going down by a neck to the same horse in the Long Walk at Ascot off levels before bagging his second Grade 1 (after the Challow as a novice) at Aintree in April, a minor setback having ruled out Cheltenham. This season he has been restricted to just two runs, bouncing back to his best after a bit of a disaster at Auteuil when second to Champ in the Long Walk. That best is still a fair few pounds shy of what Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter have done this season, though, so he needs to up his game again.
Going preference Comparable form on all surfaces
Star rating **

Thyme Hill will have to up his game against Klassical Dream and Flooring PorterCredit: Edward Whitaker

10 b g; Trainer: Emma Lavelle
Hurdles form: 122011111117213P3331, best RPR 172
Left-handed: 220111111723P331, best RPR 172
Right-handed: 1113, best RPR 164
Cheltenham form: 0111731, best RPR 172
Super stayer in the 2018-19 season, when a five-race winning run included this race, but has been more in than out since then and suffered a heart issue when only seventh on the defence of his title in 2020. He recovered from it sufficiently enough to take the Long Walk last season and his third to Flooring Porter here last year was a fine effort, albeit some way off his best form. He looked on the downgrade earlier this season with defeats in the West Yorkshire, Long Distance and Long Walk, but then came that amazing win in the Cleeve. He lost 15 lengths when trying to plant himself at the start (not for the first time according to rider Aidan Coleman), but he made up the ground steadily and his trademark turbo kicked in turning for home as he ended up well on top of Champ. That was his third Cleeve Hurdle and makes him a four-time course-and-distance winner from seven starts, so he can't be ruled out, but he won't be able to give that sort of start away in a big-field Stayers' Hurdle and we still have his age to worry about – like Champ, he's ten.
Going preference Handles any, always said to prefer better ground
Star rating ***

7 ch m; Trainer: Peter Fahey
Hurdles form: 1129211 , best RPR 152
Left-handed: 91, best RPR 151
Right-handed: 11221, best RPR 152
Cheltenham form: 9, best RPR 126
Burst into contention for this when lowering the colours of Klassical Dream in the Galmoy Hurdle in January. It's questionable what she really achieved, however, as the favourite was clearly below form and 80-1 runner-up Home By The Lee, who had been chasing, was rated just 142 over hurdles and was conceding 4lb. Royal Kahala also has the Mares' Hurdle as an option and reportedly won't be running anywhere without proper soft ground as conditions were considered much too quick when only ninth in the mares' novice last year.
Going preference Needs soft or worse
Star rating *

Royal Kahala bursts into contention with victory in the Galmoy HurdleCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

7 bb g; Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Hurdles form: 1117141, best RPR 157
Left-handed: 7141, best RPR 157
Right-handed: 111, best RPR 148
Cheltenham form (all): 7F14, best RPR 153
Reverted to hurdles this season and was well backed when winning on his return at Cheltenham in November off 146, which was generous on the pick of his form. He didn't run so well back there in December but stepped up again with victory at Warwick in a Pertemps qualifier. That put him in line for a shot at the Pertemps Final, but he's gone up 5lb for that to 156 and it will be a big ask. Still, it will be an even bigger ask in the Stayers'.
Going preference Handles any ground
Star rating *

10 b g; Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Hurdles form: 3130248861849411322P4,
best RPR 165
Left-handed: 314861849411322P4, best RPR 165
Right-handed: 3028, best RPR 144
Cheltenham form: 4112, best RPR 165
Yet another ten-year-old with some sort of claim having finished second in this last year and won the Pertemps Final in the previous two years. He hasn't hit top form yet this season, but that ought not to matter as he hadn't scored until going to the festival in each of his Pertemps-winning campaigns and hasn't run badly in two of his outings anyway. However, Gordon Elliott has said he is leaning towards the Pertemps.
Going preference Handles all ground
Star rating *

Verdict

There's every chance Klassical Dream will bounce back from his Galmoy flop, but while there's no certainty FLOORING PORTER would have beaten him with a fair start in the Christmas Hurdle, I think last year's winner remains the one to beat. His two starts this season confirm he's at least as good and he's an uncomplicated seven-year-old who could still be improving. Like many, I'd love to see Paisley Park win again and he loves the course, but the record of horses aged in double figures has to be a major worry, which also goes for Champ.

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