Does warm order Mutasaamy justify the hype in Newcastle handicap?

1.35 Newcastle
Betway Heed Your Hunch Handicap | 1m | SKY

Unusual conditions for this 0-78, under rules introduced at late notice to avoid a bias towards those rated at the top of the traditional ratings bands. That doesn't make the race an effective equivalent of an old 0-80 as those rated 79 and 80, although eligible, would have been the first balloted out.

This is the second race on Newcastle's card. Given the anticipation of fiercely competitive races, few would have predicted prior to declarations that a double on the first two favourites would pay just a little over 7-2.

At the time of writing that is how it lies and the almost certain market leader for this race, Mutasaamy, is likely to go off odds-on. He has been second and first in two handicaps, the first behind a horse who subsequently won off a higher mark.

It is suspected that, had this been a standard Monday card, the money would not have flowed in to the same extent until nearer the off. Mutasaamy is the likeliest winner by daylight, but does not jump off the page at first glance as an odds-on shot.

Admittedly, you have to dig a little to find the promise among the rest. Dancin Boy is a good example. After a midsummer break he finished third at Redcar off a 3lb higher mark but missed the target on all subsequent runs. He won on last year's reappearance though and has been second on both runs here, so appeals as the type to benefit from the wind surgery he has undergone.

Quite a few in the field have shown a tendency to race freely, so much could depend on the early pace. There is no established front- runner but Saisons D'Or is drawn in the middle and could be the likeliest to take them along.

Keith Melrose, betting editor

What do connections say?

Marco Botti, trainer of Geizy Teizy
You can probably disregard her last run. She never got any cover, ran keen and was beaten by halfway. She's better than that and I think the track will suit. She's in great order and definitely has the best chance of our two runners on the card.

Roger Varian, trainer of Mutasaamy
He was a revelation in his attitude after we gelded him and won nicely at Kempton. He had a little setback so didn't run again but this looks a nice starting point for his season.

Tim Easterby, trainer of Amadeus Grey
He's training well and would have a little squeak. He's run at Newcastle once before and goes on the surface, which is a plus.

Les Eyre, trainer of Cote D'Azur
He's in good heart but I'm not sure how the track will ride. On the form of his last run he's got to have a fighting chance.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Little Jo
We've got four on the card but Little Jo would be my best chance. He's certainly got a squeak in an open handicap and is there with a good each-way chance.

Michael Dods, trainer of Dancin Boy
He's probably more of a mile-and-a-quarter horse but we've got to take the races that are available. He looks very well and has run well over a mile before, but might be a little high in the handicap.

Jedd O'Keeffe, trainer of Saisons D'Or
I'd certainly give him a chance but there's a lot of uncertainty after the break. He goes well fresh, has run well at Newcastle before but it's a tight handicap.

Mick Appleby, trainer of Motawaafeq
He should go well and is fit enough. I think he's decent and goes on the surface no problem.

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