Who will win the 2023 Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown based on previous trends?

All eyes on Jonbon

Jonbon is long odds-on for the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (3.00 Sandown, Saturday) but for good reason.

Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old has been beaten only twice in his life and those defeats came at the hands of top-notchers Constitution Hill and El Fabiolo. The latter had his measure in last season’s Arkle at Cheltenham.

That novice championship is naturally a strong pointer towards this Grade 1 and especially when the winner of the Champion Chase is absent, as is the case this weekend.

It takes an exceptional second-season chaser to pass this test. For instance, Pendil, Flagship Uberalles, Sprinter Sacre and Edwardstone are the only Arkle winners to take this nine months on, although Waterloo Boy, Moscow Flyer and Altior did so later in their careers.

For Jonbon to be a cast-iron selection on the trends then he really needed to win that title decider last March, yet there’s no El Fabiolo to worry about on Saturday and we know he has the number of his market rivals who are all opposable on one count or another.

Edwardstone returns

As last year’s winner of the Tingle Creek, Edwardstone commands the utmost respect. Twelve months ago was his second Grade 1 success at Sandown in as many visits. And it bodes well for Alan King’s gelding that there have been ten multiple winners of this race since 1979.

However, how he will overturn a near ten-length deficit with Jonbon on their recent Cheltenham encounter is another matter. He is relying on the favourite fluffing his line.

And at the age of nine, he’s no longer improving. The Tingle Creek tends to be won by a younger horse, with 15 of the 18 winners since Moscow Flyer won this as a ten-year-old in 2004 going to the age groups five to eight.

Captain Guinness is a likeable type but continues to come up short at the highest level. With only three of the last ten winners lacking top honours, his lack of success in Grade 1s is too great a negative to ignore.

Boothill, Nube Negra and Haddex Des Obeaux are rated no higher than 158 and they look shy of the requisite class to win a typical Tingle Creek.

Verdict

It’s difficult to get away from the credentials of Jonbon, who was far too good for Captain Guinness here in April and he treated Edwardstone with contempt at Cheltenham last month.

Nicky Henderson did the right thing in giving him that prep race as, while suitable stepping stones en route to Sandown are few and far between, seven of the last ten winners showed the benefit of a race.

Furthermore, he also won last season’s Grade 1 Henry III Novices’ Chase over course and distance, a race won by previous winners Desert Orchid, Direct Route, Altior and Edwardstone.