Who will win the 2023 Coral-Eclipse at Sandown based on previous trends?

The Coral-Eclipse (3.40) takes centre stage at Sandown on a busy afternoon of action on Saturday. We've taken a look at previous trends to pick out the winner of this year's contest.

Rating

Seven of the last ten Eclipse winners achieved a Racing Post Rating of 124 or higher, with Golden Horn registering the highest of 132 when victorious in 2015.

The lowest in that time was 2014 hero Mukhadram (120) and the average RPR needed to win the race in that period was 125.

Only one of the six in contention, Paddington, has bettered that average already in their career having registered a figure of 126 when an impressive winner of the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.

Dubai Honour has had a career-best RPR of 124, while Emily Upjohn has reached 123 previously.

Form

Only three winners in the last decade had not been victorious on their previous start, which were Mukhadram (2014), Ulysses (2017) and Roaring Lion (2018).

That works against Dubai Honour and West Wind Blows as while they were not disgraced on their latest starts, all suffered defeats.

Of the seven winners who had been successful on their previous start, six of those had come in Group 1 company. Paddington and Emily Upjohn struck at the top-level on their latest starts.

Distance

Getting the trip in the Eclipse is crucial, as all ten previous winners in the last decade have won over 1m2f or further previously in their career. Half of them had also been successful over 1m4f.

Five of the six that remain in contention have won over the Eclipse's distance, with Emily Upjohn also winning two Group 1s over 1m4f, but it works negatively against Paddington.

This will be the three-year-old's first try at the trip in his career, having only raced as far as a mile when landing both the Irish 2,000 Guineas and the St James's Palace Stakes.

Paddington and Ryan Moore win from the field in the St James's Palace Stakes

Paddington (left): yet to be tried over further than a mileCredit: Mark Cranham

Price

The Eclipse has been a race where leading candidates have a strong record in the last decade, with nine of the winners in that time returning at single-figure prices. Mukhadram was the biggest-priced winner at 14-1 in 2014.

Five favourites have obliged in that period, the most recent being even-money market leader St Mark's Basilica two years ago, while last year's winner Vadeni returned as the 11-4 second-favourite.

Verdict

The horse who ticks most of the boxes is the John and Thady Gosden-trained star Emily Upjohn, who has plenty going for her on trends.

Already proven at this distance and beyond and in this class, she comes into Saturday's race off the back of her second top-level win in the Coronation Cup at Epsom and could still have more progression on ratings to come.

Paddington's key test is whether he stays the trip or not, while Dubai Honour holds solid claims.