Grand National guide: how to pick the winner of the world's most famous race

When looking at the Grand National, some people bet on the greys, others choose by silks or by name. And that's just fine – these days the 40 runners in the race are all classy horses and the test of jumping is not quite as exacting as it was.

But what if you want to play the race a little smarter? How do you go about cracking racing's greatest puzzle?

Stamina is vital

A consequence of the fences being slightly easier is that the runners can go a little bit faster, emphasising the need to thoroughly see out the distance of 4m2½f (sometimes written as 34½f, there being eight furlongs in a mile).

The issue here is that there are not many races held over 4m+ and none over as far as the Grand National. So some guesswork is required. As a rule of thumb, a horse who has run well over further than 3m2f would be more likely than not to get home and of course the further they have stayed, the better.

Minella Rocco: won over 4m as a novice chaser

Weighty matters

Depending on their perceived ability, horses carry between 11 stone 10 pounds (11st 10lb or just 11-10) and 10 stone in the Grand National, although in practice this year's floor will be 10st 2lb so competitive is the field.

There is 22lb between Anibale Fly at the top of the weights and Joe Farrell at the bottom and that may well tell at the end should the two of them jump the last fence together, but there is a lot to be negotiated before then and, in truth, weight is perhaps not the factor it used to be.

Spruce up

Aintree's famous spruce fences, used only five times a year, are still the biggest jumping test a racehorse will face. They have been softened, which means hitting them is not as penal as it was, but several little errors over a long distance would do for most horse's chances of taking a hand in the finish.

Ideally, find a horse with course experience. But it is not vital: more winners than not in the last decade or so were debuting over the National fences, including Tiger Roll. Most important is to find a fluent jumper, and perhaps one who races close to the front as it is a better way to stay out of trouble.

Ultragold (right) is a master over Aintree's spruce fences, but will he stay?Credit: John Grossick

Spread the love

If you are betting on just one in the Grand National, even if it is Tiger Roll, you are needlessly reducing your chances. Blaklion, favourite for much of the run-up to last year's race, was brought down at the first fence through no fault of his own. Such stories are the basis of much of the Grand National's mythology as a betting lottery.

Build up a shortlist of at least three (the Racing Post's ace tipster Tom Segal has been known to take around eight!) and cover more bases. Reduce your stakes if necessary.

Conclusion

Stamina, low weight, course form: put them together, and what do you get? Probably something like Walk In The Mill, who won the Grand National's closest imitator, the Becher Chase, in December.

But part of the fun of the Grand National is using your own nous, whatever form it may take, to find the winner. Take note of our guide, learned through years of trying, go forth and find that elusive Grand National winner.

For the must-have offers for the Grand National festival tap the free bets button on the racecard on the website and app or go to racingpost.com/free-bets