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Best bets, big prices, Lucky 15s and more for next week's Cheltenham Festival
The Cheltenham Festival, one of the best punting weeks of the year, is just one week away.
We put a call out for your big-race questions heading into the meeting and have picked out a handful for our resident Punting Club judges to answer.
I think if Honeysuckle was giving the field 7lb rather than getting her 7lb allowance in the Champion Hurdle she would still win. What do the panel think?Max Rowe
Matt Absolutely, quite simply because her form is miles better than most she will come up against. Some in the racing media may believe she beats the same horses, but most are due to turn up again and you would be mad to think Appreciate It can win a championship race on his return, let alone without mentioning how questionable last year's Supreme form is. I wasn't overly taken with Epatante's Christmas Hurdle win given how well she tanked through it and the only horse I could see putting up some stern challenge is Teahupoo. He reminds me of the much-missed Espoir D'Allen.
Owen There is no doubting Honeysuckle's class and she has passed every test thus far, but on 14lb worse terms as you have stipulated she would not win a Champion Hurdle. Even if you account for the weakness of the current division, I'm not sure she could defeat both Appreciate It and Teahupoo on level terms, let alone giving them 7lb. Given her current price and how much she saturates the market, I would be far more interested in Adagio at an each-way price.
Maddy I think I'd be more in Owen's camp than Matt's. I love Honeysuckle and even if the horses she's beating aren't an outstanding bunch, a 14lb swing is a whole different ball game and she would be far too short for me. I see Owen's angle with Adagio, who is capable of running a bold race, but I reckon Epatante will be Honeysuckle's biggest danger if she's back to form. Plus, she'd still get the 7lb in this hypothetical situation as well!
Do you think Shishkin is the banker of the meeting in the Champion Chase?Russell Collins
Matt Certainly not. If Chacun Pour Soi did not teach you last year, bankers in the Champion Chase are a dangerous game to play, without even mentioning he faces that rival, Energumene and Nube Negra! Given he's a best-priced 4-6 with Coral,Allaho would be a much safer banker given how superior he is over his rivals at that trip, even if I find it criminal to be backing odds-on shots.
Owen I struggle to see how Shishkin gets beaten and, to coin an old adage, the dangers are in front. I cannot see Energumene and Chacun Pour Soi being suited by the track and Nube Negra probably lacks the class. The fact that Put The Kettle On is the same price as Envoi Allen shows you just how poor last year's race was in terms of quality compared to this year. However, at 4-6, Shishkin would not interest me, banker or not. Funambule Sivola wasn't disgraced behind him at Aintree last season and, granted a strong test, might be the each-way danger.
Maddy I have to be very confident to label a horse a 'banker' because I like to find value and take on short-priced favourites. For all Shishkin should win if he's at his best, there are legitimate concerns as he seemed to have a hard race at Ascot and his jumping was far from perfect there. As I mentioned in my Weekender column last week, there could be plenty of pace pressure and I really like the chances ofNube Negra each-way. He was so unfortunate in a sprint to the line last year and it looks like he'll get a better set up this time around. Plenty of shorties have been beaten in the Champion Chase in recent years!
If Dysart Dynamo goes for the Ballymore I think he's the banker of the festival. It looks a weaker race compared to the Supreme and I can see him winning easily, but what do the panel think?Lee Wainright
Matt Given his keenness was notable last time over two miles, I'm happy to take Dysart Dynamo on. It is one of the weaker runnings we've seen and I think it could be the year for a surprise. Three Stripe Life has run brilliantly in Grade 1 company over two miles, including behind Sir Gerhard last time, and looks to be crying out for a step up in trip. He's a half-brother to two winners up to 3m and his best price of 12-1 looks tasty should connections go down this route.
Owen Provided Sir Gerhard goes to the Supreme he would be the class horse in the race, but I struggle to believe he would get a soft lead over this new trip and stamina could be an issue if that does prove to be the case. It all comes down to how the race cuts up but I'm more than happy to take him on.
Maddy Sorry Lee but we don't agree here. I think I'm the only person in the world who wants Dysart Dynamo to go for the Supreme and I think he'd win it! Positive tactics are rewarded on the Old course and Paul Townend can utilise the horse's natural exuberance to put the others under pressure coming down the hill. I liked Journey With Me for the Ballymore and while I think he can do better than last time, he'll definitely need to. The race is going to cut up quite a bit and I can see myself having a few quid on something at a huge price each-way. Watch this space!
While I think Ireland will win most races again this year, I think the Brits will do far better than last year. What would be your British banker bet for the meeting? Kev Horsley
Matthew Edwardstone to win the Arkle. He has kept on going from strength to strength this season and his performance in the Kingmaker was arguably a career-best. He's such a quick jumper and I think that could take the race away from his opponents. I don't think the Irish novice chase form in the 2m division is up to much this season anyway.
Owen I'm not one to be drawn into the Britain v Ireland debate – the festival is about appreciating the best jumps horses and it doesn't matter where they hail from. That being said, I do think there are far more British horses coming into this year’s festival with live chances. Shishkin is the obvious answer, but that is no fun and I agree with Matt about Edwardstone. He has been faultless this season and would be unbeaten over fences had he not been brought down on his chasing debut. If he was trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls he would be odds-on and his current price still makes appeal.
Maddy I'm not saying we'll topple the Irish in terms of winners but I definitely think Britain will do better than last year, and if we don't then we're in trouble! He's not a banker but I'm really warming to the chances of Red Rookie in the Grand Annual. He beat Brave Seasca and Amarillo Sky at Chepstow at the start of the season and is 20-1 while they're 8-1 and 10-1. My only concern is he needs a decent pace to aim at as he's a strong stayer, but we've seen how horses can come from the clouds in this race – Le Prezien, Chosen Mate and that ride on Bellvano to name a few!
JP McManus rarely leaves the festival without claiming one of the handicaps. Which of his do you think is his best chance and why?Daniel Phillips
Matt I'm a sucker for an old favourite and I think Sire Du Berlais has a cracking chance of regaining his Pertemps Final crown. Already a two-time winner of the race, he's following exactly the same route he took to victory in 2020 when fourth in a Warwick qualifier in January and we know he can defy top weight. He looks ominously laid out for this, if Mr Elliott chooses to send him this way.
Owen From a market perspective, he has three well-fancied chances in the Boodles, with Champion Green being the one who would appeal the most in that contest. That being said, I think his strongest chance lies with The Shunter in the Plate. He was a great fourth in the Galway Plate in the summer and was well fancied prior to his unseat in a competitive Leopardstown handicap won by Birchdale last time. A mark of 153 remains within range and this sort of race suits him perfectly.
Maddy As Matt says, Sire Du Berlais has obvious claims in the Pertemps. I'd flag upDame De Compagnie, who is 1lb lower than when winning the Coral Cup in 2020 and is also qualified for the Pertemps this year as well. Back over hurdles and some decent ground could get her sparking again and I'd expect an improved performance. She's 25-1 for both races.
Henry de Bromhead says Minella Indo always comes good this time of year and loves Cheltenham, so does he have a great chance of defending his crown in the Gold Cup? Andy Parker
Matthew Minella Indo is proving to be my nemesis as I never back him when he turns up – I'm hoping it won't be the same case again! Al Boum Photo proved you can still win back-to-back Gold Cups, but last year's race was gruelling and I don't think his run last time still screamed that he's back to his pomp. I'm happy to be proved wrong, but I think the perfect horse for it is .
Owen I think he has an excellent chance of doing so and Cheltenham really does bring out the best in him. In three runs there, he's won a pair of Grade 1 races and was a shade unlucky to have Champ pick him up late in the RSA. This season has not been as disappointing as many make out and you can be sure Henry de Bromhead will have him just right for the Gold Cup. If he can jump as well as he did 12 months ago he'll be bang there heading over the last, although I personally think Protektorat will pick his pocket.
Maddy He's a funny one isn't he, Andy? He clearly brings his A-game to the festival and is probably unlucky to have not won there three times, so he warrants respect. I backed him last year but he was 9-1 then and is 5-1 now, so I can't say I'm rushing to get involved. I think it's a travesty they aren't running Mount Ida in the Gold Cup as I backed her at 50-1 NRNB but in her absence I'd lean towards Tornado Flyer. He'll be ridden cold and will pick up several pieces again. Galvin is the solid win-only option.
Is it possible you could all pick a horse for each day of the festival? Tricky but a fun request I think.Patrick John Balchin
Matthew I'll happily buy you a drink if this Lucky 15 comes in, Patrick: Edwardstone, Ahoy Senor, Flooring Porter and Galvin.
Owen I'm going to go ultra ambitious and head to the handicaps for my four picks. Saint Segal in the Boodles, Gowel Road in the Coral Cup, Go Another One in the Pertemps and Ben Case's Cobblers Dream in the closing race, the Martin Pipe.
Maddy I like Owen's shout with Cobblers Dream in the Martin Pipe. I'll stick with my Desert Island Tips I gave in the Racing Post on Sunday, but we'll need a bit of luck for them to all turn up. Come On Teddy in the Ultima, Red Rookie in the Grand Annual, Celebre D'Allen in the Plate and Balco Coastal in the County. Good luck!
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