Exploring the form of the 80-1 Arc winner: were the clues there all along?

Torquator Tasso, sent off at 72-1 on the PMU, was the third biggest-priced winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in 100 years, but perhaps we shouldn't have been so surprised.

He was hard to find for most of us, but his record clearly suggests he shouldn't have been quite such a huge price.

A good starting point is pre-race adjusted RPRs. With a figure of 127, on form Torquator Tasso had as good a chance as – if not better than – Raabihah, Mojo Star, Sealiway, Alenquer and Bubble Gift, all of whom started shorter than him, and some considerably so, in the betting.

Read a horse-by-horse analysis of the Arc, and quotes from connections

In last year's German Derby, Torquator Tasso was beaten just three-quarters of a length by In Swoop, who went on to finish second in the Grand Prix de Paris (beaten two and a half lengths by Mogul) and the Arc (just a neck behind Sottsass) later that season, and is now rated 122.

Torquator Tasso's recent form had also worked out. He split Alpinista and Walton Street, both Group 1 winners on their next starts, in the Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten in August, before winning a Group 1 himself in September.

In the Grosser Preis von Baden, he defeated Sisfahan, winner of the German Derby on his previous start, and the Saeed bin Suroor-trained Passion And Glory, who looked progressive at the time having won a Group 3 at Ascot the time before.

Even a positive view of those exploits would still have left Torquator Tasso with improvement to find on Sunday, but what it does serve to highlight is that the market got it wrong – he should have been closer to 25-1 than the second biggest price in the field.

His victory is still a surprise, but by no means a freak outcome.

Read more on the 2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:

Torquator Tasso stuns big-name rivals to spring shock success for Germany in Arc

'If we hadn't had so much rain we'd have won' – Weld rues Tarnawa near-miss

Appleby points to lack of pace after Godolphin challenge comes unstuck in ground

'If the winner wasn't 80-1 we'd be saying it was the best Arc for decades'

How the 2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe unfolded on testing ground at Longchamp

2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe result: where your horse finished

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