Aston Villa have improved dramatically in the Premier League – but why?

How has Unai Emery turned Aston Villa into a team with the second-best results in the Premier League? The answer might surprise you.

Emery has managed Villa for 20 games. Only Manchester City have more points in a 20-game table. Below Villa come Newcastle and Arsenal then Manchester United, who they play on Sunday. Emery’s first game was a home win over Manchester United.

This is Villa’s fourth season back in the Premier League. Emery is their third manager. Dean Smith gained 1.15 points per game, Steven Gerrard 1.16, Emery 2.10.

That is a huge improvement. What has Emery changed? Nothing that has made any meaningful difference. I said the answer might surprise you.

Let us compare Villa this season before and after Emery became manager. They scored just over a third of the goals in their games before. They have scored almost two-thirds of their goals in the games since. But that incredible turnaround seems to be attributable almost entirely to luck.

Villa took 49 per cent of the shots in their games before Emery became manager. They have taken 50 per cent since. Hardly any difference.

Ah, you might say, perhaps Villa have been shooting from better positions and their opponents from worse positions. No. A range of compilers give Villa either exactly or just under half of the expected goals in the games since Emery became manager.

Well, you might conclude, perhaps Villa have been shooting more accurately and their opponents less accurately. Not so much that anyone should notice. Villa were responsible for 48 per cent of the shots on target in their games before Emery became manager and 50 per cent after.

So Villa have not shot more often, from better positions or more accurately. It is just that a lot more of their shots have gone in, and a lot fewer of their opponents’.

If Villa accumulate points at the same rate as over the last 20 games they will finish this season with 64 and next season with 80. They are a nice club with likeable fans and I would love to see them do well. But much more feasible, I suspect, is a return to something closer to what had become normal. My expectations are totals of 60 points this season and 50 points next season.

Can Manchester City do the same again?

Manchester City have won their last seven Premier League games. How long will they keep winning? They have seven more Premier League games to play.

Altogether this season City have won 74 per cent of their games, drawn 13 per cent and lost 13 per cent. Over the six previous seasons since Pep Guardiola became manager they won 74 per cent, drew 13 per cent and lost 13 per cent.

I think those proportions are a sensible starting point for thinking about what City might do next. They are more likely to win at home than away, more likely to beat opponents low in the table than up high. But it is probably not unreasonable to suggest that on average they might have something like a 74 per cent chance of winning, a 13 per cent chance of drawing and a 13 per cent chance of losing.

In the past City were more likely to win the next game if they had won the last game, but if they keep winning this season they could become champions with games to spare and then they might ease off. They did in 2020-21 with the Champions League final still to play. This season when the Premier League is over they will play in the FA Cup final and potentially the Champions League final as well.

In the Premier League if City have on average a 74 per cent chance of winning a game they will have a 12 per cent chance of winning all seven remaining games. The odds would be 7-1. The first game is at Fulham on Sunday.

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