What to expect when Premier League and Championship opposition meet in an FA Cup semi-final

Nought out of three. Manchester City have lost their last three FA Cup semi-finals, though all were against Premier League opponents.

Nought out of ten. Premier League teams have played ten FA Cup semi-finals against Championship opponents. None were knocked out. One prevailed in extra time, two in penalty shootouts. Sheffield United figure twice among the seven Championship teams beaten in normal time – by Arsenal in 2003 and Newcastle in 1998.

On Saturday Premier League Manchester City play in an FA Cup semi-final against Championship Sheffield United. What should we expect?

Small samples sometimes make good stories but more often they provide bad predictions. It is probably better on this occasion to use some of the larger data sets available for each side. Here is one way.

Manchester City have scored 74 per cent of the goals in their Premier League games. That proportion is not unusual for them. There were two seasons when they won the title scoring 80 per cent of the goals in their games. Then there were three seasons when they won the title twice and overall scored 75 per cent of the goals in their games.

I do not think it is unreasonable to suggest that now City would score 74 per cent of the goals in games at neutral venues against average Premier League opponents.

Sheffield United are in the Championship, but next season they will probably be in the Premier League. They need a maximum of three points from their remaining four games to achieve promotion.

United have scored 64 per cent of the goals in their Championship games. A team promoted with that stat would typically score 40 per cent of the goals next season in their Premier League games.

United’s and City’s goals records are consistent with their won/drawn/lost records, which should increase our confidence in their durability.

So where are we? In games at neutral venues against the same set of Premier League opponents we could expect City to score 74 per cent of the goals and United to score 40 per cent of the goals.

What should we expect today when they play each other at neutral Wembley? In such games the favourites have an 81 per cent chance of scoring each goal that is scored. In normal time the result chances are 83 per cent for a win by the favourites, 12 per cent for a draw and five per cent for a win by the outsiders.

A goal is nearly always less likely than you think

On Sunday Brighton play Manchester United in the other FA Cup semi-final. It will stir memories of when they met in the 1983 final.

In the last minute of extra time the score was 2-2. Brighton attacked. Michael Robinson passed the ball to Gordon Smith, who was unmarked in the penalty area.

When Smith shaped to shoot he was about ten yards from goal. “And Smith must score” yelled BBC radio commentator Peter Jones. Those words became famous. Because Smith did not score. United keeper Gary Bailey stopped the shot.

Shortly afterwards the referee blew his whistle. In those days finals that were level after extra time were replayed. United won the replay 4-0.

“I thought I was going to score”, Smith has said. “Instead of being remembered as the man who missed that chance, I would have been remembered as the man who scored the winning goal against Manchester United at Wembley in an FA Cup final.”

How often, though, does a player score when they are unmarked ten yards out with just the keeper to beat? Only about six times out of ten.

Did you think it was more often? If you did, you are in plentiful company. Commentators, reporters, fans who have been watching football for decades – we are all prone to thinking a player is much more likely to score than they really are.

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