US Open women's semi-final predictions: Fernandez can push Sabalenka all the way

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for day 11 at the US Open at Flushing Meadows in New York City.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, midnight Thursday

Best bet

Over 19.5 games in Fernandez v Sabalenka
2pts 8-11 Coral, Ladbrokes

Leylah Fernandez v Aryna Sabalenka

Leylah Fernandez has sent three seeds packing on a dream run to the US Open semi-finals and the Canadian teenage prodigy will be hoping to add world number two Aryna Sabalenka to her hit list.

Fernandez’s heroics in New York rightly mark her as a star for the future and her confidence should be soaring after a string of impressive scalps.

The 19-year-old has recorded three-set triumphs over defending champion Naomi Osaka and former world number one Angelique Kerber as well as the experienced fifth seed Elina Svitolina, who was appearing in her eighth Grand Slam quarter-final.

There can be no fluke about those achievements and the composure she has shown on court make her a worthy adversary for Sabalenka.

Fernandez has shown great variation in her shots and her athleticism has enabled her to stay deep in rallies.

It is plausible, however, that the nerves will kick in for the Canadian and her powerful style could be overshadowed by the bigger-hitting Belarusian, who on her day can dominate any opponent.

Both players trust in their hard-hitting weapons to find winners, but there is little margin for error with that approach and that generally also triggers a high number of unforced errors.

Sabalenka has eased into the last four, dropping just one set in her five wins, but this is a hurdle she is yet to overcome.

Despite being a ten-time winner on the WTA Tour, the 23-year-old is yet to reach a Grand Slam final and this is only the second time she has gone beyond the fourth round of a major in 16 attempts.

Sabalenka suffered a semi-final defeat at Wimbledon most recently and the Montreal youngster is capable of keeping this last-four duel close.

All five of Fernandez's New York assignments have featured at least 21 games - her last three have gone beyond the 30 mark - and this may follow a similar course.

With every possibility of a tiebreak - four of the Canadian’s five matches have featured one - backing this contest to last at least 20 games is where the value lies.

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