US Open men's semi-final predictions & tennis betting tips: Ruud to reach final

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for the US Open men's semi-finals.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, from 8pm Friday

Best bets

Casper Ruud -2.5 games v Karen Khachanov
2pts 8-11 Paddy Power

Over 3.5 sets in Carlos Alcaraz v Frances Tiafoe
1pt 8-15 BoyleSports

Karen Khachanov v Casper Ruud

Even allowing for Novak Djokovic's absence at the final Grand Slam tournament of 2022, this year's US Open has documented well the changing of the guard that is starting to take place in men's tennis.

The four remaining players are all chasing a first major trophy and while Karen Khachanov has produced the best Slam form of his career to reach the semi-finals at Flushing Meadows, his run is likely to end when he meets higher-ranked Casper Ruud.

Khachanov could be dangerous because he is pretty much at a physical peak in his career. But Norwegian number one Ruud looks to have a superior all-round game to his semi-final opponent and he should show that in New York City on Friday.

Khachanov opened with two unremarkable four-set wins but then stepped up on that to defeat promising Briton Jack Draper in straight sets in round three, in-form Pablo Carreno Busta in five sets in the last 16 and Wimbledon finalist Nick Kyrgios in five in the quarter-finals.

Ruud dropped sets against Tim van Rijthoven, Tommy Paul and lucky-loser Corentin Moutet in rounds two to four, but there was no mistaking his effort in denying Matteo Berrettini 6-1 6-4 7-6 in the last eight.

Form students could look at that result and argue that Berrettini has not been at his absolute peak in recent months and they would have a point. However, the Italian had defeated Andy Murray and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in pretty decent fashion in rounds three and four and it had looked like he was about to come back to the boil.

The oddsmakers look right to make Ruud favourite - his price has contracted from an initial 8-13 - and while backers can consider taking the 8-15, it could pay to back the Norwegian to successfully concede Khachanov a start of 2.5 games on the handicap.

Carlos Alcaraz v Frances Tiafoe

Carlos Alcaraz should win the second men's semi-final against Frances Tiafoe, but the Spaniard is no certainty.

Tiafoe is performing at the peak of his powers and has had a seismic confidence boost with his fourth-round victory over Rafael Nadal.

The largely unheralded American was a 400-1 shot in the days leading up to the US Open, he has made a mockery of such odds by dropping only one set in his run to the last four - and that was against the Majorcan legend.

Alcaraz is no stranger to seeing off lower-ranked opponents in straight sets in Slams but Tiafoe, winner of their only previous meeting on clay last year, is playing such inspired tennis right now that he could be a genuine danger to the teenager.

Of course, Alcaraz, arguably the brightest prospect men's tennis has seen for some time, will probably find a way to prevail over the best of five sets. But the fact that the 19-year-old was taken the distance in his last two matches - against Marin Cilic and Jannik Sinner - is not ideal preparation for a date with an opponent as focused as Tiafoe and their semi-final rumble could be close.

Punters can back Alcaraz to triumph, possible in four or five sets, but with the zoned-in Tiafoe sure to come in for the majority of crowd support in the Big Apple, it could pay to back over 3.5 sets to be contested instead.

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