Swiatek v Jabeur predictions & tennis betting tips for the US Open women's final

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for the US Open women's singles final between Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 9pm Saturday

Best bet

Iga Swiatek -1.5 games
1pt 4-6 Hills

Preview

Two of the most in-form players of the season will clash in the US Open women's singles final on Saturday when Iga Swiatek, all-conquering in the first half of the year, takes on Ons Jabeur, who will be contesting back-to-back Grand Slam finals after finding only Elena Rybakina too good at Wimbledon in July.

Jabeur, the most successful tennis player that Tunisia has ever produced, has worked wonders to reach the top of her sport. The fifth seed looks to be playing just about as well as ever too, although she still has much to do to get her hands on a maiden major trophy at Flushing Meadows this weekend.

World number one and top seed Swiatek was untouchable from February to June, winning hard-court titles in Doha, Indian Wells and Miami and clay-court crowns in Stuttgart, Rome and at the French Open.

The Pole, 21, hasn't added to that tally since but this is a huge opportunity for her to return to winning ways and claim a first fast-court major title. Swiatek may not be quite as dominant on hard courts as she is on clay, on which she has won two Roland Garros titles in three years. But she's still mighty difficult to beat on faster courts with reliable bounce - and Jabeur may well discover that on Saturday.

Swiatek has dropped two sets on the way to reaching her second Slam singles final of the year, against Jule Niemeier in the last 16 and sixth seed Aryna Sabalenka, who she fought back to deny 3-6 6-1 6-4 in the semi-finals. Jabeur has dropped just one set, against 31st seed Shelby Rogers in round three.

But while Jabeur's form is obviously difficult to criticise - the 28-year-old has seen off Serena Williams's conqueror Ajla Tomljanovic and Caroline Garcia in her last two singles outings - Swiatek's victories over opponents such as 2017 US Open heroine Sloane Stephens, Jessica Pegula and Sabalenka, against whom she converted 70 per cent of her break-point chances, suggest her form may be marginally more solid.

It's two wins apiece in their personal series. Swiatek won their first clash 4-6 6-4 6-4 on a Washington DC hard court in 2019. Jabeur then edged 2-1 ahead following triumphs last year at Wimbledon (5-7 6-1 6-1) and on a Cincinnati hard court (6-3 6-3), before Swiatek brushed aside the Tunisian 6-2 6-2 on clay in Rome earlier this year.

Swiatek is generally available at 8-15 to capture her third Slam singles title with a victory over 13-8 Jabeur, who has already been well supported to upset the odds. But rather than take the 8-15, which isn't the most tempting price, it may be worth backing the favourite to successfully concede her opponent a handicap start of 1.5 games at 4-6.

Garcia, victorious in the US Open Series tournament in Cincinnati in the lead-up to New York City, had been playing superbly until the semi-finals. Jabeur did all that she needed to do to deny the Frenchwoman 6-1 6-3, during which 83 per cent of her first-service points were winners, but there are question marks about whether that was Garcia's true form.

Prior to her semi-final outing, Jabeur had squeezed past Veronika Kudermetova 7-6 6-4 and Tomljanovic 6-4 7-6 and it may be wiser for punters to use those results as a more trustworthy formguide. And those similar efforts are unlikely to see Swiatek reaching for the worry beads.

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