Djokovic v Medvedev predictions & tennis betting tips for US Open men's final

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for Sunday's men's final at the US Open at Flushing Meadows in New York City.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 9pm Sunday

Best bets

Novak Djokovic to beat Daniil Medvedev 3-1
1pt 3-1 bet365, Hills

Novak Djokovic to beat Daniil Medvedev 3-2
1pt 6-1 BoyleSports

Preview

Novak Djokovic is 4-9 to land a calendar Grand Slam and a record 21st major singles title with a US Open final victory over Daniil Medvedev in New York City on Sunday.

But, while the top seed may well defeat the second seed, punters should remember that this is America and not Australia.

In February Djokovic trounced the Russian 7-5 6-2 6-2 at his favourite hard-court major venue, Melbourne Park, in the final of the Australian Open, a tournament he has farmed.

However, where the super Serb has collected nine major singles titles down under, at Flushing Meadows he has triumphed on only three occasions. And so, while Djokovic plays the occasional brilliant match in the US Open, it tends to be a venue where he has to work harder and dig deeper for victory.

Two-time Slam singles runner-up Medvedev is a better player now than when he reached his first US Open final two years ago. He has dropped only one set in the tournament, against qualifier Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarter-finals, and needed a second-set collapse of seismic proportions from Felix Auger-Aliassime in their semi-final to avoid dropping a second.

Djokovic, who has dropped six sets in the Big Apple in a series of predominantly unhurried, controlled performances, will be mightily relieved to have overcome Alexander Zverev 4-6 6-2 6-4 4-6 6-2 in a titanic semi-final. The German had thwarted the world number one's hopes of a golden Slam in the Olympic semi-finals in late July.

Some observers think the final won't be any tougher for Djokovic than his last-four outing and that's possible. But it may not pay punters to expect that the favourite simply has to turn up for the title match in order to lift the trophy.

Djokovic, 34, leads the 25-year-old Medvedev 5-3 in their personal series. The Serb won their first three encounters, all on fast courts, but Medvedev then won three of their next four clashes, one of which was on clay and another indoors, before Djokovic hit back in Melbourne earlier this year.

Against Zverev in his semi-final when forced to batten down the hatches, Djokovic nailed an ultra-solid 77 per cent of first-serve winners, while on his forays to the net the title favourite posted an even more impressive 81 per cent.

Medvedev, in comparison, has yet to be seriously tested in the Big Apple. Against Auger-Aliassime, in what should have been his biggest challenge, a tidy 81 per cent of the Muscovite's first serves were winners and all five of his break-point opportunities against the Canadian were successfully converted.

In his solitary dropped set of the US Open against Van de Zandschulp, Medvedev's percentage of second-serve winners dropped to 45, so we could see further wobbling if, as is highly likely, Djokovic puts him under pressure for a good portion of the final.

Punters can definitely consider backing their ninth meeting to feature over 3.5 sets and that looks the safest way of betting. However, those slightly braver bettors could narrow it down by taking the Medvedev win option out of the equation and backing Djokovic, who is still likely to dominate much of the final, to win 3-1 and 3-2.

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